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Thor Akureyri v IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Thor Akureyri

1–0Full time

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 10 OCT · Thorsvollur

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Thor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IBV Vestmannaeyjar win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.656

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.679

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IBV Vestmannaeyjar win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: IBV Vestmannaeyjar was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–25–40
2′KICK-OFF Thor Akureyri v IBV Vestmannaeyjar
30′🟨 YELLOW · 26' M. Tomic · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
34′⚽ GOAL · 30' Thor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · C. Jakobsen (assist A. Hlynsson)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' E. Halldorsson · Thor Akureyri
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' B. Gunnarsson · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
43′SUBSTITUTION · 43' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: S. Hardarson · Off: A. Vokes
45′C. Jakobsen scores for Thor Akureyri on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–23–10
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' IBV Vestmannaeyjar win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Thor Akureyri win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was IBV Vestmannaeyjar win 10%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' F. Fridriksson · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
45′HALF-TIME Thor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
46′SECOND HALF Thor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: O. Sowe · Off: R. Hlynsson
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' S. Magnusson · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' M. Edeland · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: H. Thordarson · Off: B. Gunnarsson
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: S. Kristjansson · Off: F. Fridriksson
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Thor Akureyri · On: F. Gislason · Off: B. Brynjolfsson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: E. Runarsson · Off: M. Tomic
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' E. Runarsson · IBV Vestmannaeyjar
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Thor Akureyri · On: V. Bertomeu · Off: C. Jakobsen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Thor Akureyri · On: A. Sigurjonsson · Off: T. Ingolfsson
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Thor Akureyri · On: B. Hlynsson · Off: S. Ingason
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Thor Akureyri · On: R. Ragnarsson · Off: A. Hlynsson
FTFULL TIME Thor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FTThor Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · IBV Vestmannaeyjar win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Thor Akureyri win34%

Draw25%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Thorsvollur

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Thor Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Stefansson

18 S. Ingason

6 G. Gudbrandsson

2 A. Arnarsson

15 K. Kristjansson

23 K. Vazquez

35 T. Ingolfsson

8 E. Halldorsson

16 B. Brynjolfsson

22 A. Hlynsson

25 C. Jakobsen

Coach · Sigurdur Hoskuldsson

Substitutes

28 · L. Vieira Thomas

3 · B. Hlynsson

19 · R. Ragnarsson

27 · H. Brynjarsson

7 · A. Sigurjonsson

4 · H. Runarsson

10 · A. Magnusson

17 · F. Gislason

9 · V. Bertomeu

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Petersen

23 A. Kristinsson

2 S. Magnusson

4 M. Edeland

26 F. Fridriksson

30 V. Valor

6 M. Tomic

8 B. Gunnarsson

25 A. Hilmarsson

11 A. Vokes

27 R. Hlynsson

Coach · Aleksandar Linta

Substitutes

1 · I. Vidrih

22 · E. Runarsson

17 · E. Gautason

5 · S. Kristjansson

67 · O. Sowe

9 · L. Jeffs

7 · S. Hardarson

28 · H. Magnusson

80 · H. Thordarson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Thor Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Stefansson

18 S. Ingason

6 G. Gudbrandsson

2 A. Arnarsson

15 K. Kristjansson

23 K. Vazquez

35 T. Ingolfsson

8 E. Halldorsson

16 B. Brynjolfsson

22 A. Hlynsson

25 C. Jakobsen

Coach · Sigurdur Hoskuldsson

Substitutes

28 · L. Vieira Thomas

3 · B. Hlynsson

19 · R. Ragnarsson

27 · H. Brynjarsson

7 · A. Sigurjonsson

4 · H. Runarsson

10 · A. Magnusson

17 · F. Gislason

9 · V. Bertomeu

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Petersen

23 A. Kristinsson

2 S. Magnusson

4 M. Edeland

26 F. Fridriksson

30 V. Valor

6 M. Tomic

8 B. Gunnarsson

25 A. Hilmarsson

11 A. Vokes

27 R. Hlynsson

Coach · Aleksandar Linta

Substitutes

1 · I. Vidrih

22 · E. Runarsson

17 · E. Gautason

5 · S. Kristjansson

67 · O. Sowe

9 · L. Jeffs

7 · S. Hardarson

28 · H. Magnusson

80 · H. Thordarson

Our number · ibv vestmannaeyjar winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make IBV Vestmannaeyjar a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thor Akureyri win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win	40%	41%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	61%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	41%	−9
Thor Akureyri or draw	60%	59%	0
Thor Akureyri clean sheet	23%	–	–
IBV Vestmannaeyjar clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 8.7 6.5 3.2 1 7.9 11.8 8.5 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.5 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thor Akureyri down, IBV Vestmannaeyjar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 924 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thor Akureyri at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). IBV Vestmannaeyjar away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Thor Akureyri, 1.47 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IBV 0–1 THO · THO 1–4 IBV

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

THOR AKUREYRI

LLWWLL0–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–3

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR

LLLDLD1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	24	+28	47
3	Fram Reykjavik	24	+12	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	24	−3	31
7	Stjarnan	24	−9	31
8	Keflavik	24	−8	29
9	FH hafnarfjordur	24	−6	27
10	KA Akureyri	24	−13	23
11	Thor Akureyri	24	−34	21
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	24	−15	19