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Stjarnan v Valur Reykjavik

Stjarnan
6–0Full time
Valur Reykjavik

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Stjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik STJARNAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stjarnan win42%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.525
The market’s Brier score0.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stjarnan win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Stjarnan 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–20–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stjarnan v Valur Reykjavik
  4. 15′G. Nokkvason scores for Stjarnan on 14′. 0–0 · 41–22–37
  5. 15′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 63%. 1–0 · 63–18–19
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Stjarnan 1–0 Valur Reykjavik · G. Nokkvason
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 63% now
  8. 21′21′: B. Ingason on the scoresheet for Stjarnan. 1–0 · 63–19–18
  9. 21′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–0 · 82–11–7
  10. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Stjarnan 2–0 Valur Reykjavik · B. Ingason
  11. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  12. 35′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
  13. 35′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 2–0 · 85–10–5
  14. 35′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–0 · 95–4–1
  15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stjarnan 3–0 Valur Reykjavik
  16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
  17. 36′B. Ingason scores for Stjarnan on 35′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 95–4–1
  18. 38′37′: O. Eggertsson on the scoresheet for Stjarnan, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Stjarnan 4–0 Valur Reykjavik
  20. 43′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 43′5 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
  23. 44′Stjarnan ahead on 43′ through J. Gunnarsson. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
  25. 45′SECOND HALF Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
  26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' T. Haraldsson · Valur Reykjavik
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valur Reykjavik · On: E. Sigurbjornsson · Off: S. Veseli
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valur Reykjavik · On: I. Stole · Off: J. Palsson
  29. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' L. Heimisson · Valur Reykjavik
  30. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Stjarnan · On: G. Kristjansson · Off: O. Eggertsson
  31. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valur Reykjavik · On: A. Skoglund · Off: K. Arnarsson
  32. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valur Reykjavik · On: O. Omarsson · Off: H. Gunnarsson
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stjarnan · On: B. Bjornsson · Off: B. Ingason
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stjarnan · On: C. Alexandersson · Off: B. Waren
  35. 86′G. Nokkvason scores for Stjarnan on 86′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 86′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Stjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik · G. Nokkvason
  38. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Stjarnan · On: E. Porsteinsson · Off: B. Hauksson
  39. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Stjarnan · On: E. Armannsson · Off: O. Orvarsson
  40. 90′6–0 at the end. Our 42% on Stjarnan comes in. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' A. Bjornsson · Stjarnan
  42. FTFULL TIME Stjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik
  43. FTStjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik · Stjarnan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Stjarnan just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stjarnan 42%, draw 20%, Valur Reykjavik 38%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Stjarnan v Valur ReykjavikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stjarnan win42%
Draw20%
Valur Reykjavik win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stjarnan

Valur Reykjavik

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stjarnan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market48%
Us42%
Market48%

We make Stjarnan a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stjarnan v Valur Reykjavik2.13 – 2.04
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 28 v 277 v 8
The market · Stjarnan win48% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:22
Our probability · Stjarnan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stjarnan win42%48%−6
Draw20%22%−2
Valur Reykjavik win38%30%+8
Over 2.5 goals78%79%−1
Both teams to score76%77%−1
Over 1.5 goals92%90%+2
Over 3.5 goals60%63%−3
Stjarnan or draw62%70%−8
Stjarnan clean sheet13%––
Valur Reykjavik clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 7.1%
0123450 3.2 3.3 2.2 1 3.4 6.8 6.8 4.6 2.4 2 3.6 7.1 7.1 4.8 2.5 3 2.5 5.0 5.0 3.4 4 2.7 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stjarnan down, Valur Reykjavik across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting4.10
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsVAL 2–3 STJ · STJ 2–4 VAL · VAL 3–2 STJ · VAL 1–2 STJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 Aug

STJARNAN

WDWLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 1–3

VALUR REYKJAVIK

DWWDLW2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 4–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627
9FH hafnarfjordur22−1221
10Thor Akureyri22−2821
11KA Akureyri22−1320
12IBV Vestmannaeyjar22−1318

The competition's standings before kick-off.