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Stjarnan v Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
Valur ReykjavikÚrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Stjarnan win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Stjarnan 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–20–38
- 1′KICK-OFF Stjarnan v Valur Reykjavik
- 15′G. Nokkvason scores for Stjarnan on 14′. 0–0 · 41–22–37
- 15′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 63%. 1–0 · 63–18–19
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Stjarnan 1–0 Valur Reykjavik · G. Nokkvason
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 63% now
- 21′21′: B. Ingason on the scoresheet for Stjarnan. 1–0 · 63–19–18
- 21′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–0 · 82–11–7
- 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Stjarnan 2–0 Valur Reykjavik · B. Ingason
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
- 35′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
- 35′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 2–0 · 85–10–5
- 35′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–0 · 95–4–1
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stjarnan 3–0 Valur Reykjavik
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Stjarnan win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
- 36′B. Ingason scores for Stjarnan on 35′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 95–4–1
- 38′37′: O. Eggertsson on the scoresheet for Stjarnan, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 99–1–0
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Stjarnan 4–0 Valur Reykjavik
- 43′We said Stjarnan at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 43′5 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
- 44′Stjarnan ahead on 43′ through J. Gunnarsson. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 45′HALF-TIME Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
- 45′SECOND HALF Stjarnan 5–0 Valur Reykjavik
- 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' T. Haraldsson · Valur Reykjavik
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valur Reykjavik · On: E. Sigurbjornsson · Off: S. Veseli
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Valur Reykjavik · On: I. Stole · Off: J. Palsson
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' L. Heimisson · Valur Reykjavik
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Stjarnan · On: G. Kristjansson · Off: O. Eggertsson
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valur Reykjavik · On: A. Skoglund · Off: K. Arnarsson
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valur Reykjavik · On: O. Omarsson · Off: H. Gunnarsson
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stjarnan · On: B. Bjornsson · Off: B. Ingason
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stjarnan · On: C. Alexandersson · Off: B. Waren
- 86′G. Nokkvason scores for Stjarnan on 86′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
- 86′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Stjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik · G. Nokkvason
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Stjarnan · On: E. Porsteinsson · Off: B. Hauksson
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Stjarnan · On: E. Armannsson · Off: O. Orvarsson
- 90′6–0 at the end. Our 42% on Stjarnan comes in. 6–0 · 100–0–0
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' A. Bjornsson · Stjarnan
- FTFULL TIME Stjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik
- FTStjarnan 6–0 Valur Reykjavik · Stjarnan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Stjarnan just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Stjarnan 42%, draw 20%, Valur Reykjavik 38%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Stjarnan win42%
Valur Reykjavik win38%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundRelegation Group · matchday 5
Match timeline
All events
StjarnanMIN
Valur ReykjavikEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild
Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Stjarnan a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stjarnan win | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | −2 |
| Valur Reykjavik win | 38% | 30% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Stjarnan or draw | 62% | 70% | −8 |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
| Valur Reykjavik clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 Aug
STJARNAN
VALUR REYKJAVIK
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | +46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | +25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | −2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | −5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | −8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | −6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | −12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | −28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | −13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | −13 | 18 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Breidablik
IA Akranes
Keflavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Thor Akureyri
KA Akureyri
IBV Vestmannaeyjar