Home › Football › Úrvalsdeild › Stjarnan v KA Akureyri

Stjarnan v KA Akureyri

Stjarnan

0–3Full time

KA Akureyri

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stjarnan 0–3 KA Akureyri STJARNAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stjarnan win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stjarnan win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stjarnan 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–20–26
1′KICK-OFF Stjarnan v KA Akureyri
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' G. Nokkvason · Stjarnan
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Stjarnan 0–1 KA Akureyri · H. Steingrimsson
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Stjarnan 0–2 KA Akureyri · H. Steingrimsson
40′⚽ GOAL · 38' Stjarnan 0–2 KA Akureyri · A. Palsson (assist J. Arnason)
45′A. Palsson scores for KA Akureyri on 38′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–81
45′HALF-TIME Stjarnan 0–2 KA Akureyri
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stjarnan win: 54% at kick-off, 6% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' KA Akureyri win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Stjarnan win 6%)
46′SECOND HALF Stjarnan 0–2 KA Akureyri
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stjarnan · On: J. Gunnarsson · Off: I. Turay
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stjarnan · On: A. Bjarnason · Off: E. Atlason
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stjarnan · On: A. Hauksson · Off: B. Ingason
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KA Akureyri · On: V. Saevarsson · Off: A. Palsson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KA Akureyri · On: J. Robertsson · Off: M. Thordarson
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' KA Akureyri
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' B. Waren · Stjarnan
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Stjarnan 0–3 KA Akureyri · V. Saevarsson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' KA Akureyri · On: H. Steingrimsson · Off: B. Baldvinsson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' KA Akureyri · On: D. Djuric · Off: J. Pedersen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stjarnan · On: A. Vilhjalmsson · Off: O. Eggertsson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stjarnan · On: S. Jonsson · Off: S. T. Ingimarsson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' KA Akureyri · On: S. Johannsson · Off: H. Steingrimsson
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' B. Hauksson · Stjarnan
FTFULL TIME Stjarnan 0–3 KA Akureyri
FTStjarnan 0–3 KA Akureyri · Stjarnan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stjarnan win54%

Draw20%

KA Akureyri win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stjarnan

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Olafsson

14 B. Hauksson

6 S. T. Ingimarsson

3 G. Kjeldsen

25 C. Alexandersson

18 G. Nokkvason

21 I. Turay

7 O. Eggertsson

23 B. Waren

11 B. Ingason

22 E. Atlason

Coach · Jokull Elisabetarson

Substitutes

1 · D. Bergmann Gylfason

19 · A. Leifsson

24 · S. Jonsson

29 · A. Hauksson

8 · J. Gunnarsson

28 · B. Saemundsson

99 · A. Bjarnason

94 · A. Vilhjalmsson

36 · A. Bjornsson

KA Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Audunsson

30 G. Hrafnkelsson

28 H. Gudmundsson

6 A. Romer

23 M. M. Petursson

2 B. Baldvinsson

29 J. Arnason

8 J. Pedersen

21 M. Thordarson

10 H. Steingrimsson

7 A. Palsson

Coach · Hallgrimur Jonasson

Substitutes

99 · J. Ingolfsson

22 · H. Steingrimsson

77 · O. A. Morales Einarsson

14 · D. Djuric

16 · J. Robertsson

44 · V. Saevarsson

91 · S. Kristinsson

25 · B. Helgason

32 · S. Johannsson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stjarnan

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Olafsson

14 B. Hauksson

6 S. T. Ingimarsson

3 G. Kjeldsen

25 C. Alexandersson

18 G. Nokkvason

21 I. Turay

7 O. Eggertsson

23 B. Waren

11 B. Ingason

22 E. Atlason

Coach · Jokull Elisabetarson

Substitutes

1 · D. Bergmann Gylfason

19 · A. Leifsson

24 · S. Jonsson

29 · A. Hauksson

8 · J. Gunnarsson

28 · B. Saemundsson

99 · A. Bjarnason

94 · A. Vilhjalmsson

36 · A. Bjornsson

KA Akureyri

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Audunsson

30 G. Hrafnkelsson

28 H. Gudmundsson

6 A. Romer

23 M. M. Petursson

2 B. Baldvinsson

29 J. Arnason

8 J. Pedersen

21 M. Thordarson

10 H. Steingrimsson

7 A. Palsson

Coach · Hallgrimur Jonasson

Substitutes

99 · J. Ingolfsson

22 · H. Steingrimsson

77 · O. A. Morales Einarsson

14 · D. Djuric

16 · J. Robertsson

44 · V. Saevarsson

91 · S. Kristinsson

25 · B. Helgason

32 · S. Johannsson

Our number · stjarnan winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Stjarnan a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stjarnan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stjarnan win	54%	50%	+3
Draw	20%	21%	−1
KA Akureyri win	26%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Both teams to score	70%	75%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	89%	90%	0
Over 3.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Stjarnan or draw	74%	71%	+2
Stjarnan clean sheet	21%	–	–
KA Akureyri clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.4 3.4 2.7 1 4.9 7.8 5.9 3.1 2 5.6 8.6 6.6 3.5 3 4.2 6.4 5.0 2.6 4 2.4 3.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stjarnan down, KA Akureyri across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 924 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.46 goals a meeting; 9 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stjarnan at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). KA Akureyri away: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Stjarnan, 1.56 for KA Akureyri. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.46

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~STJ 3–1 KAA · KAA 2–3 STJ · STJ 3–2 KAA · KAA 1–1 STJ

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

STJARNAN

LWWDWL1–3 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–5

KA AKUREYRI

DLDWLW4–4 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	24	+28	47
3	Fram Reykjavik	24	+12	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	24	−3	31
7	Stjarnan	24	−9	31
8	Keflavik	24	−8	29
9	FH hafnarfjordur	24	−6	27
10	KA Akureyri	24	−13	23
11	Thor Akureyri	24	−34	21
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	24	−15	19