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KR Reykjavik v Breidablik

KR Reykjavik
8–3Full time
Breidablik

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
KR Reykjavik 8–3 Breidablik KR REYKJAVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said KR Reykjavik win53%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.330
The market’s Brier score0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said KR Reykjavik win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: KR Reykjavik 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–18–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF KR Reykjavik v Breidablik
  4. 12′A. Sigurdarson scores for KR Reykjavik on 11′. 0–0 · 52–20–29
  5. 12′We said KR Reykjavik at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–15–14
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 11' KR Reykjavik 1–0 Breidablik · A. Sigurdarson
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 71% now
  8. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' KR Reykjavik 1–1 Breidablik
  9. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 50% now
  10. 26′25′: T. Ulfarsson on the scoresheet for Breidablik, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 49–22–28
  11. 27′S. Karason scores for KR Reykjavik on 26′. 1–1 · 49–22–28
  12. 28′⚽ GOAL · 26' KR Reykjavik 2–1 Breidablik · S. Karason
  13. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 72% now
  14. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' KR Reykjavik 3–1 Breidablik
  15. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 88% now
  16. 30′S. Karason scores for KR Reykjavik on 28′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 88–8–4
  17. 30′We said KR Reykjavik at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 3–1 · 88–8–4
  18. 37′5 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 72–17–11
  19. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' KR Reykjavik 3–2 Breidablik
  20. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 72% now
  21. 38′37′: S. Karason puts it into the KR Reykjavik net, and it is 3–2. 3–2 · 72–17–11
  22. 39′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 89–8–3
  23. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' KR Reykjavik 4–2 Breidablik
  24. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 89% now
  25. 40′KR Reykjavik ahead on 39′ through G. Gudmundsson. 4–2. 4–2 · 89–8–3
  26. 43′We said KR Reykjavik at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 4–2 · 90–7–3
  27. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' V. Einarsson · Breidablik
  28. 45′HALF-TIME KR Reykjavik 4–2 Breidablik
  29. 45′SECOND HALF KR Reykjavik 4–2 Breidablik
  30. 52′We said KR Reykjavik at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 5–2 · 98–2–0
  31. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' KR Reykjavik 5–2 Breidablik
  32. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' KR Reykjavik win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
  33. 53′7 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 98–2–0
  34. 54′A. Traustason scores for KR Reykjavik on 52′ — 5–2. 5–2 · 98–2–0
  35. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Breidablik · On: O. Omarsson · Off: D. Fjeldsted
  36. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Breidablik · On: K. Kristinsson · Off: G. Hallsson
  37. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' KR Reykjavik · On: H. Sigurdsson · Off: O. Kjartansson
  38. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Breidablik · On: A. Bjarnason · Off: J. Arnarsson
  39. 72′We said KR Reykjavik at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  40. 73′That is 8, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  41. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' KR Reykjavik 6–2 Breidablik
  42. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Breidablik · On: B. Thorsteinsson · Off: V. Einarsson
  43. 74′72′: F. Heimisson on the scoresheet for KR Reykjavik, making it 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  44. 74′9 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 6–3 · 100–0–0
  45. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KR Reykjavik · On: A. Albertsson · Off: A. Traustason
  46. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KR Reykjavik · On: J. E. Ragnarsson · Off: H. Tomasson
  47. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' KR Reykjavik · On: S. Asgeirsson · Off: A. Thordarson
  48. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' KR Reykjavik 6–3 Breidablik
  49. 75′Breidablik pull one back on 74′ through B. Thorsteinsson. 6–3. 6–3 · 100–0–0
  50. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' S. Karason · KR Reykjavik
  51. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' KR Reykjavik · On: I. Gunnar · Off: F. Heimisson
  52. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Breidablik · On: A. Gunnleifsson · Off: T. Ulfarsson
  53. 89′That is 10, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 6–4 · 100–0–0
  54. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' KR Reykjavik 6–4 Breidablik
  55. 90′89′: A. Sigurdarson on the scoresheet for KR Reykjavik. 6–4 · 100–0–0
  56. 91′⚽ GOAL · 89' KR Reykjavik 8–3 Breidablik · A. Sigurdarson (assist S. Asgeirsson)
  57. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' KR Reykjavik 8–3 Breidablik
  58. 91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Breidablik
  59. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' KR Reykjavik
  60. FTFULL TIME KR Reykjavik 8–3 Breidablik
  61. FTKR Reykjavik 8–3 Breidablik · KR Reykjavik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KR Reykjavik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KR Reykjavik 53%, draw 18%, Breidablik 28%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on KR Reykjavik v BreidablikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

KR Reykjavik win53%
Draw18%
Breidablik win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KR Reykjavik

Breidablik

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 16 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kr reykjavik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off
53% The market57%
Us53%
Market57%

We make KR Reykjavik a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · KR Reykjavik v Breidablik2.69 – 1.97
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 31 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 44 v 303 v 4
The market · KR Reykjavik win57% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:22
Our probability · KR Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
KR Reykjavik win53%57%−4
Draw18%19%−1
Breidablik win28%24%+4
Over 2.5 goals84%84%0
Both teams to score80%79%+1
Over 1.5 goals94%93%+1
Over 3.5 goals68%70%−2
KR Reykjavik or draw72%76%−4
KR Reykjavik clean sheet14%––
Breidablik clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.7%
0123450 1 2.6 5.1 5.0 3.2 2 3.5 6.7 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.8 4 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.5 5 2.2 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+KR Reykjavik down, Breidablik across0–5 goals a side shown (92.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsKRR 3–3 BRE · BRE 6–3 KRR · KRR 1–1 BRE · BRE 3–3 KRR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 31 Aug

KR REYKJAVIK

DLWLWW1–1 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

BREIDABLIK

LLWLWL0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627
9FH hafnarfjordur22−1221
10Thor Akureyri22−2821
11KA Akureyri22−1320
12IBV Vestmannaeyjar22−1318

The competition's standings before kick-off.