Keflavik v KR Reykjavik prediction · Úrvalsdeild

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Keflavik 2–3 KR Reykjavik KR REYKJAVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KR Reykjavik win~~48%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KR Reykjavik win at 48%.
0′KICK-OFF Keflavik v KR Reykjavik
1′Little has changed for our model: KR Reykjavik 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 33–20–48
8′We said KR Reykjavik at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 17–16–68
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Keflavik 0–1 KR Reykjavik
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 68% now
9′8′: G. Gudmundsson on the scoresheet for KR Reykjavik, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–16–68
28′We said KR Reykjavik at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–2 · 5–9–86
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Keflavik 0–2 KR Reykjavik
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
30′KR Reykjavik ahead on 29′ through A. Thordarson. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–9–86
34′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 0–2 · 4–9–87
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
45′HALF-TIME Keflavik 0–2 KR Reykjavik
45′SECOND HALF Keflavik 0–2 KR Reykjavik
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: F. Elvarsson · Off: A. Conteh
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: E. Ragnarsson · Off: E. Bwomono
47′We said KR Reykjavik at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 11–19–70
47′S. Ljubicic scores for Keflavik on 47′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–19–70
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Keflavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
48′We said KR Reykjavik at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
51′51′: D. Valsson on the scoresheet for Keflavik, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 29–32–39
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Keflavik 2–2 KR Reykjavik · D. Valsson
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 39% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
58′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 2–2 · 28–36–36
62′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 26–39–34
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was KR Reykjavik win 34%)
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Keflavik · On: A. Adalbjorssnos · Off: D. Valsson
70′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 23–48–29
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
76′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 19–57–24
80′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 15–66–19
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Keflavik · On: B. L. Brynjarsson · Off: V. A. Traustason
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' KR Reykjavik · On: H. Sigurdsson · Off: L. Rae
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' KR Reykjavik · On: S. Karason · Off: G. Gudmundsson
84′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 10–77–13
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' KR Reykjavik · On: O. Kjartansson · Off: A. Albertsson
88′We said KR Reykjavik at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–83–9
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Keflavik · On: E. Karlsson · Off: A. Magnusson
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Keflavik 2–3 KR Reykjavik
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' KR Reykjavik win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' KR Reykjavik win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
89′5 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–6–93
90′KR Reykjavik ahead on 89′ through G. Eyjolfsson. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–94
91′We said KR Reykjavik at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Keflavik 2–3 KR Reykjavik
FTKeflavik 2–3 KR Reykjavik · KR Reykjavik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KR Reykjavik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Keflavik 33%, draw 19%, KR Reykjavik 48%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Keflavik v KR ReykjavikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Keflavik win33%

Draw19%

KR Reykjavik win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 4

Line-ups

Keflavik

KR Reykjavik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Keflavik

KR Reykjavik

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 10 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Keflavik

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Magnusson

2 E. Bwomono

88 M. Simicic

20 M. Brigic

22 A. Magnusson

28 V. A. Traustason

6 S. Magnusson

3 A. Johannesson

7 D. Valsson

21 A. Conteh

10 S. Ljubicic

Coach · Haraldur Gudmundsson

Substitutes

12 · H. Hermannsson

4 · N. Heras

47 · E. Karlsson

25 · F. Elvarsson

42 · B. L. Brynjarsson

18 · E. Bjarnason

26 · R. Holmarsson

23 · E. Ragnarsson

15 · A. Adalbjorssnos

KR Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

12 H. Georgsson

22 A. Thordarson

7 F. Palmason

21 G. Eyjolfsson

17 L. Rae

29 A. Albertsson

23 A. Traustason

26 H. Tomasson

45 G. Gudmundsson

9 E. Saebjornsson

11 A. Sigurdarson

Coach · Oskar Thorvaldsson

Substitutes

31 · S. Ingolfsson

1 · A. Olafsson

28 · H. Sigurdsson

95 · S. Asgeirsson

4 · M. Akoto

30 · S. Karason

77 · O. Kjartansson

24 · F. Heimisson

8 · S. Geirsson

Our number · kr reykjavik winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market58%

Us48%

~~Market~~58%

We make KR Reykjavik a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Keflavik v KR Reykjavik~~1.94 – 2.36

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 44~~6 v 3

~~The market · KR Reykjavik win~~58% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KR Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Keflavik win	33%	22%	+11
Draw	19%	19%	0
KR Reykjavik win	48%	58%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Both teams to score	77%	77%	0
Over 1.5 goals	92%	91%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Keflavik or draw	52%	42%	+10
Keflavik clean sheet	10%	–	–
KR Reykjavik clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.2%

0123450 3.3 3.8 3.0 1 2.7 6.3 7.2 5.6 3.3 2 2.7 6.0 6.9 5.4 3.2 3 3.9 4.4 3.5 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Keflavik down, KR Reykjavik across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 932 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Keflavik at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). KR Reykjavik away: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Keflavik, 2.36 for KR Reykjavik. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KEF 3–2 KRR · KRR 3–2 KEF · KRR 2–0 KEF · KRR 2–0 KEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug

KEFLAVIK

WLLLDL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–3

KR REYKJAVIK

WDLWLW5–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18