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KA Akureyri v IBV Vestmannaeyjar

KA Akureyri

5–1Full time

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

KA Akureyri 5–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar KA AKUREYRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KA Akureyri win~~49%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KA Akureyri win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: KA Akureyri was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
1′KICK-OFF KA Akureyri v IBV Vestmannaeyjar
4′J. Arnason scores for KA Akureyri on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–16–12
4′We published KA Akureyri at 49%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–12
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' KA Akureyri 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · J. Arnason
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' KA Akureyri win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
8′SUBSTITUTION · 8' KA Akureyri · On: S. Kristinsson · Off: B. Baldvinsson
19′17′: H. Magnusson on the scoresheet for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–27–27
19′⚽ GOAL · 17' KA Akureyri 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · H. Magnusson (assist R. Hlynsson)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' KA Akureyri win: 49% at kick-off, 46% now
38′KA Akureyri ahead on 38′ through M. Thordarson. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–18–8
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' KA Akureyri 2–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · M. Thordarson
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' KA Akureyri win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
41′We published KA Akureyri at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME KA Akureyri 3–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' KA Akureyri · On: K. Gautason · Off: S. Kristinsson
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: V. Valgeirsson · Off: R. Hlynsson
46′SECOND HALF KA Akureyri 3–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
47′H. Steingrimsson scores for KA Akureyri on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
47′We published KA Akureyri at 49%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' KA Akureyri 3–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · H. Steingrimsson
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' KA Akureyri win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
48′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
53′We published KA Akureyri at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–5–1
56′56′: H. Steingrimsson on the scoresheet for KA Akureyri, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
56′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' KA Akureyri 4–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · H. Steingrimsson
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' KA Akureyri win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: S. Hardarson · Off: E. Gautason
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: H. Thordarson · Off: H. Magnusson
63′We published KA Akureyri at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Arnason · KA Akureyri
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' KA Akureyri · On: H. Steingrimsson · Off: M. Thordarson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' KA Akureyri · On: V. Saevarsson · Off: J. Pedersen
71′KA Akureyri ahead on 71′ through A. Palsson. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
71′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' KA Akureyri 5–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · A. Palsson
72′KA Akureyri ahead on 70′ through A. Palsson. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' KA Akureyri · On: D. Djuric · Off: A. Palsson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: I. Vidrih · Off: A. Petersen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' IBV Vestmannaeyjar · On: S. Sigursveinsson · Off: E. Runarsson
FTFULL TIME KA Akureyri 5–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FTKA Akureyri 5–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar · KA Akureyri win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KA Akureyri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KA Akureyri 49%, draw 23%, IBV Vestmannaeyjar 28%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on KA Akureyri v IBV VestmannaeyjarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

KA Akureyri win49%

Draw23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KA Akureyri

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 16 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ka akureyri winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market57%

Us49%

~~Market~~57%

We make KA Akureyri a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KA Akureyri v IBV Vestmannaeyjar~~1.81 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 18~~11 v 12

~~The market · KA Akureyri win~~57% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KA Akureyri win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KA Akureyri win	49%	57%	−8
Draw	23%	22%	+1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
KA Akureyri or draw	72%	79%	−7
KA Akureyri clean sheet	28%	–	–
IBV Vestmannaeyjar clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 5.8 3.8 1 8.1 10.5 6.7 2.9 2 7.3 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 4.4 5.6 3.6 4 2.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KA Akureyri down, IBV Vestmannaeyjar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 936 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KA Akureyri at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). IBV Vestmannaeyjar away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for KA Akureyri, 1.30 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IBV 2–2 KAA · KAA 2–0 IBV · IBV 3–4 KAA · KAA 1–0 IBV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 29 Aug

KA AKUREYRI

DWLWWL2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–4

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR

LDLDLW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18