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IA Akranes v Keflavik

IA Akranes
4–4Full time
Keflavik

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
IA Akranes 4–4 Keflavik IA AKRANES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said IA Akranes win53%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.969
The market’s Brier score1.047

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said IA Akranes win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: IA Akranes was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF IA Akranes v Keflavik
  4. 12′IA Akranes ahead on 11′ through M. P. Ellertsson. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–10
  5. 12′We published IA Akranes at 53%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–15–10
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 11' IA Akranes 1–0 Keflavik · M. P. Ellertsson
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 74% now
  8. 17′We published IA Akranes at 53%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–10
  9. 17′A. Conteh scores for Keflavik on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–24–25
  10. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' IA Akranes 1–1 Keflavik · A. Conteh
  11. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 50% now
  12. 22′22′: G. Unnarsson on the scoresheet for IA Akranes, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–16–10
  13. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' IA Akranes 2–1 Keflavik · G. Unnarsson
  14. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
  15. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' IA Akranes · On: O. Stefansson · Off: G. Unnarsson
  16. 38′IA Akranes ahead on 37′ through S. Ellertsson. 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
  17. 38′We published IA Akranes at 53%. Our model now makes it 92%. 3–1 · 92–6–2
  18. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' IA Akranes 3–1 Keflavik
  19. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
  20. 39′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 92–6–2
  21. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  22. 45′HALF-TIME IA Akranes 3–2 Keflavik
  23. 46′45′: E. Ragnarsson on the scoresheet for Keflavik. 3–1 · 93–5–1
  24. 46′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–17–7
  25. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' IA Akranes 3–2 Keflavik · E. Ragnarsson
  26. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
  27. 46′SECOND HALF IA Akranes 3–2 Keflavik
  28. 48′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 42–35–24
  29. 48′48′: A. Conteh on the scoresheet for Keflavik, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 42–35–24
  30. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' IA Akranes 3–3 Keflavik
  31. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
  32. 49′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 3–3 · 41–35–23
  33. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: F. Elvarsson · Off: D. Valsson
  34. 54′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 3–3 · 39–38–23
  35. 56′Keflavik ahead on 56′ through A. Johannesson. 3–4. 3–4 · 13–26–62
  36. 56′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 3–4 · 13–26–62
  37. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' IA Akranes 3–4 Keflavik · A. Johannesson
  38. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  39. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Keflavik win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was IA Akranes win 39%)
  40. 57′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 12–26–62
  41. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IA Akranes · On: G. Thorarinsson · Off: H. Haraldsson
  42. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' IA Akranes · On: B. Bodvarsson · Off: R. Sigurjonsson
  43. 63′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–4 · 9–25–66
  44. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Keflavik · On: A. Magnusson · Off: E. Karlsson
  45. 74′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 4–4 · 25–59–16
  46. 74′8 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–4 · 25–59–16
  47. 74′G. Eyjolfsson scores for IA Akranes on 74′ — 4–4. 4–4 · 25–59–16
  48. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' B. L. Brynjarsson · Keflavik
  49. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' IA Akranes 4–4 Keflavik
  50. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 25% now
  51. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Keflavik win 74%)
  52. 75′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 4–4 · 24–61–15
  53. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Keflavik · On: M. Simicic · Off: B. L. Brynjarsson Corrected
  54. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Keflavik · On: V. A. Traustason · Off: S. Magnusson Corrected
  55. 79′We said IA Akranes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 4–4 · 19–68–12
  56. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' IA Akranes · On: I. Gudjonsson · Off: S. Ellertsson
  57. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' IA Akranes · On: G. E. Gislason J. · Off: J. Vall
  58. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' IA Akranes win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  59. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Keflavik · On: A. Adalbjorssnos · Off: S. Ljubicic
  60. 90′Full time, 4–4. We called IA Akranes at 53% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 4–4 · 0–100–0
  61. FTFULL TIME IA Akranes 4–4 Keflavik
  62. FTIA Akranes 4–4 Keflavik · IA Akranes win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

IA Akranes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IA Akranes 53%, draw 21%, Keflavik 26%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on IA Akranes v KeflavikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

IA Akranes win53%
Draw21%
Keflavik win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IA Akranes

Keflavik

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ia akranes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
53% The market59%
Us53%
Market59%

We make IA Akranes a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · IA Akranes v Keflavik2.07 – 1.38
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 AugW3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 30 v 285 v 6
The market · IA Akranes win59% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:22
Our probability · IA Akranes win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
IA Akranes win53%59%−6
Draw21%19%+2
Keflavik win26%21%+5
Over 2.5 goals67%77%−10
Both teams to score65%72%−7
Over 1.5 goals86%89%−3
Over 3.5 goals45%61%−16
IA Akranes or draw74%79%−5
IA Akranes clean sheet26%––
Keflavik clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.4 4.4 3.1 1 6.6 9.1 6.2 2.9 2 6.8 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.7 6.3 4.3 2.0 4 2.5 3.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+IA Akranes down, Keflavik across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.40
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsKEF 5–2 IAA · IAA 1–3 KEF · KEF 3–1 IAA · KEF 0–0 IAA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 30 Aug

IA AKRANES

DWLWDW2–2 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 4–2

KEFLAVIK

LLLDLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627
9FH hafnarfjordur22−1221
10Thor Akureyri22−2821
11KA Akureyri22−1320
12IBV Vestmannaeyjar22−1318

The competition's standings before kick-off.