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Fram Reykjavik v KR Reykjavik

Fram Reykjavik

1–2Full time

KR Reykjavik

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:52

Fram Reykjavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik FRAM REYKJAVIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fram Reykjavik win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fram Reykjavik win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fram Reykjavik 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–19–37
1′KICK-OFF Fram Reykjavik v KR Reykjavik
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Fram Reykjavik 0–1 KR Reykjavik
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Fram Reykjavik 0–1 KR Reykjavik · A. Sigurdarson (assist F. Palmason)
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Fram Reykjavik 1–1 KR Reykjavik · A. Sigurdarson
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Fram Reykjavik 1–1 KR Reykjavik · T. Thorbjornsson (assist K. Konradsson)
21′20′ and it is 1–1: T. Thorbjornsson on the scoresheet for Fram Reykjavik. 1–1 · 43–21–36
45′HALF-TIME Fram Reykjavik 1–1 KR Reykjavik
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' KR Reykjavik · On: H. Sigurdsson · Off: S. Karason
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' KR Reykjavik · On: A. Thordarson · Off: F. Palmason
45′SECOND HALF Fram Reykjavik 1–1 KR Reykjavik
53′🟨 YELLOW · 55' G. Gudmundsson · KR Reykjavik
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fram Reykjavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik · T. Thorbjornsson
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Fram Reykjavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik · A. Traustason
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fram Reykjavik · On: V. Dimitrijevic · Off: K. Konradsson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' KR Reykjavik · On: A. Albertsson · Off: O. Kjartansson
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Fred Saraiva · Fram Reykjavik
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' K. Chopart · Fram Reykjavik
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Akoto · KR Reykjavik
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' A. Albertsson · KR Reykjavik
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' H. Asgrimsson · Fram Reykjavik
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' G. Eyjolfsson · KR Reykjavik
FTFULL TIME Fram Reykjavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik
FTFram Reykjavik 1–2 KR Reykjavik · Fram Reykjavik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fram Reykjavik win44%

Draw18%

KR Reykjavik win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fram reykjavik winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Fram Reykjavik a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fram reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fram Reykjavik win	44%	44%	0
Draw	18%	21%	−2
KR Reykjavik win	37%	35%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	86%	85%	+2
Both teams to score	83%	81%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	95%	92%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Fram Reykjavik or draw	63%	65%	−2
Fram Reykjavik clean sheet	10%	–	–
KR Reykjavik clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.5%

0123450 2.1 1 4.6 5.2 4.0 2.4 2 2.5 5.7 6.5 5.0 3.0 3 2.1 4.8 5.5 4.3 2.5 4 3.1 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fram Reykjavik down, KR Reykjavik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 924 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.82 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fram Reykjavik at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). KR Reykjavik away: 2.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.57 goals for Fram Reykjavik, 2.36 for KR Reykjavik. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.82

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FRA 2–5 KRR · KRR 2–2 FRA · FRA 0–1 KRR · KRR 2–3 FRA

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

FRAM REYKJAVIK

WWDDLD3–1 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

KR REYKJAVIK

DWDLWL3–3 · 5–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	24	+28	47
3	Fram Reykjavik	24	+12	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	24	−3	31
7	Stjarnan	24	−9	31
8	Keflavik	24	−8	29
9	FH hafnarfjordur	24	−6	27
10	KA Akureyri	24	−13	23
11	Thor Akureyri	24	−34	21
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	24	−15	19