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Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes

Fram Reykjavik
2–4Full time
IA Akranes

Úrvalsdeild · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 23:00
Fram Reykjavik 2–4 IA Akranes FRAM REYKJAVIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Fram Reykjavik win52%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.840
The market’s Brier score0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fram Reykjavik win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Fram Reykjavik was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes
  4. 4′K. Konradsson scores for Fram Reykjavik on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–15–13
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Fram Reykjavik 1–0 IA Akranes · K. Konradsson
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 5′We published Fram Reykjavik at 52%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–15–13
  8. 13′A red card for Fram Reykjavik on 12′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 73–15–12
  9. 13′🟥 RED CARD · 12' F. Sigurdsson · Fram Reykjavik
  10. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' B. Berndsen · IA Akranes
  11. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' K. McLagan · Fram Reykjavik
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
  13. 34′33′: B. Berndsen on the scoresheet for IA Akranes, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–27–27
  14. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Fram Reykjavik 1–1 IA Akranes · B. Berndsen
  15. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
  16. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' E. T. Sandberg · IA Akranes
  17. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' G. Unnarsson · IA Akranes
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Fram Reykjavik 1–1 IA Akranes
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Fram Reykjavik 1–1 IA Akranes
  20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  21. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IA Akranes · On: V. Jonsson · Off: B. Bodvarsson
  22. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IA Akranes · On: J. Vall · Off: G. Unnarsson
  23. 52′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–35–25
  24. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' K. Chopart · Fram Reykjavik
  25. 55′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–37–24
  26. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' R. Hauksson · Fram Reykjavik
  27. 59′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–25–63
  28. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Fram Reykjavik 1–2 IA Akranes
  29. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  30. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' IA Akranes win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Fram Reykjavik win 38%)
  31. 60′IA Akranes ahead on 59′ through B. Berndsen. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  32. 64′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
  33. 66′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–46–21
  34. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Fram Reykjavik 2–2 IA Akranes
  35. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 33% now
  36. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was IA Akranes win 67%)
  37. 67′K. Konradsson scores for Fram Reykjavik on 67′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 32–47–21
  38. 68′K. Konradsson scores for Fram Reykjavik on 66′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 31–48–20
  39. 69′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–50–20
  40. 71′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–52–19
  41. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' G. Eyjolfsson · IA Akranes
  42. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' IA Akranes · On: G. E. Gislason J. · Off: G. Thorarinsson
  43. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fram Reykjavik · On: J. Bystrom · Off: R. Hauksson
  44. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fram Reykjavik · On: H. Asgrimsson · Off: O. Hlynsson
  45. 76′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–60–16
  46. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 21% now
  47. 80′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–13
  48. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fram Reykjavik · On: S. Tibbling · Off: Fred Saraiva
  49. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' IA Akranes · On: O. Stefansson · Off: M. P. Ellertsson
  50. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  51. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fram Reykjavik · On: V. Dimitrijevic · Off: M. Aegisson
  52. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' IA Akranes · On: R. Thrastarson · Off: S. Thorsteinsson
  53. 90′Full time, 2–4. We called Fram Reykjavik at 52% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  54. 93′We said Fram Reykjavik at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
  55. 93′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–3–96
  56. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Fram Reykjavik 2–3 IA Akranes
  57. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Fram Reykjavik win: 52% at kick-off, under 1% now
  58. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' IA Akranes win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 94%)
  59. 94′90′: R. Thrastarson on the scoresheet for IA Akranes, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
  60. FTFULL TIME Fram Reykjavik 2–4 IA Akranes
  61. FTFram Reykjavik 2–4 IA Akranes · Fram Reykjavik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fram Reykjavik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fram Reykjavik 52%, draw 20%, IA Akranes 27%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Fram Reykjavik v IA AkranesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fram Reykjavik win52%
Draw20%
IA Akranes win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:15

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fram Reykjavik

IA Akranes

9Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 11 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
5IA Akranes22−230

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fram reykjavik winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
52% The market47%
Us52%
Market47%

We make Fram Reykjavik a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes2.21 – 1.57
Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 AugW1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 45 v 302 v 5
The market · Fram Reykjavik win47% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0219 OCT 19:37
Our probability · Fram Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fram Reykjavik win52%47%+5
Draw20%23%−3
IA Akranes win27%30%−3
Over 2.5 goals72%74%−2
Both teams to score70%72%−2
Over 1.5 goals89%88%+1
Over 3.5 goals52%57%−5
Fram Reykjavik or draw73%70%+3
Fram Reykjavik clean sheet21%––
IA Akranes clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%
0123450 2.5 3.6 2.9 1 5.1 8.0 6.2 3.2 2 5.6 8.6 6.7 3.5 3 4.1 6.3 4.9 2.6 4 2.3 3.5 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fram Reykjavik down, IA Akranes across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsIAA 0–2 FRA · FRA 3–3 IAA · IAA 0–1 FRA · FRA 0–1 IAA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug

FRAM REYKJAVIK

WDDLDL4–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

IA AKRANES

DDWLWD1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vikingur Reykjavik22+4653
2Fram Reykjavik22+1445
3KR Reykjavik22+2544
4Breidablik22+230
5IA Akranes22−230
6Keflavik22−528
7Stjarnan22−828
8Valur Reykjavik22−627
9FH hafnarfjordur22−1221
10Thor Akureyri22−2821
11KA Akureyri22−1320
12IBV Vestmannaeyjar22−1318

The competition's standings before kick-off.