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FH hafnarfjordur v Thor Akureyri

FH hafnarfjordur

1–2Full time

Thor Akureyri

Úrvalsdeild · SAT 24 OCT · Kaplakriki

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

FH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri FH HAFNARFJORDUR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FH hafnarfjordur win~~62%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.098

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FH hafnarfjordur win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FH hafnarfjordur 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
1′KICK-OFF FH hafnarfjordur v Thor Akureyri
8′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' FH hafnarfjordur 1–0 Thor Akureyri
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
9′FH hafnarfjordur ahead on 8′ through A. Birgisson. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
18′T. Ingolfsson scores for Thor Akureyri on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 58–23–19
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' FH hafnarfjordur 1–1 Thor Akureyri · T. Ingolfsson
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 58% now
20′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–2 · 33–25–42
20′20′: T. Ingolfsson on the scoresheet for Thor Akureyri, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 33–25–42
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' FH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 33% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Thor Akureyri win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FH hafnarfjordur win 58%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
28′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–26–45
39′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–48
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME FH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri
45′SECOND HALF FH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri
48′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–52
58′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FH hafnarfjordur · On: A. Gudmundsson · Off: B. Jonsson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FH hafnarfjordur · On: A. Steinarsson · Off: A. Birgisson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FH hafnarfjordur · On: G. Tryggvason · Off: K. Finnbogason
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Thor Akureyri · On: B. Hlynsson · Off: K. Kristjansson
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' O. Stefansson · FH hafnarfjordur
66′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–64
71′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 7–24–69
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' S. Ingason · Thor Akureyri
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FH hafnarfjordur · On: B. Thorsson · Off: R. Saevarsson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Thor Akureyri · On: S. Gunnarsson · Off: S. Ingason Corrected
76′We said FH hafnarfjordur at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FH hafnarfjordur · On: A. Gudjohnsen · Off: G. Gislason
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Thor Akureyri · On: F. Gislason · Off: T. Ingolfsson
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' FH hafnarfjordur win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Thor Akureyri · On: S. Gunnarsson · Off: S. Ingason
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' I. Olafsson · FH hafnarfjordur
90′1–2 at the end. Our 62% on FH hafnarfjordur misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′FH hafnarfjordur are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' O. Stefansson · FH hafnarfjordur
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Thor Akureyri · On: A. Sigurjonsson · Off: E. Halldorsson
94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' FH hafnarfjordur
FTFULL TIME FH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri
FTFH hafnarfjordur 1–2 Thor Akureyri · FH hafnarfjordur win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FH hafnarfjordur are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FH hafnarfjordur 62%, draw 20%, Thor Akureyri 18%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FH hafnarfjordur v Thor AkureyriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FH hafnarfjordur win62%

Draw20%

Thor Akureyri win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 5

VenueKaplakriki

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FH hafnarfjordur

Thor Akureyri

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

Last match: 17 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fh hafnarfjordur winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market44%

Us62%

~~Market~~44%

We make FH hafnarfjordur a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FH hafnarfjordur v Thor Akureyri~~2.21 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 21~~9 v 10

~~The market · FH hafnarfjordur win~~44% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FH hafnarfjordur win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FH hafnarfjordur win	62%	44%	+18
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Thor Akureyri win	18%	32%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	67%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
FH hafnarfjordur or draw	82%	68%	+14
FH hafnarfjordur clean sheet	34%	–	–
Thor Akureyri clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 4.1 2.3 1 8.1 8.9 4.9 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 6.5 7.0 3.9 4 3.7 3.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FH hafnarfjordur down, Thor Akureyri across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 936 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FH hafnarfjordur at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Thor Akureyri away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for FH hafnarfjordur, 1.10 for Thor Akureyri. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~THO 1–0 FHH · FHH 1–1 THO · THO 2–4 FHH · THO 2–2 FHH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 29 Aug

FH HAFNARFJORDUR

WLWWWL2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 5–3 · 1–3

THOR AKUREYRI

WWLLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18