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Breidablik v Vikingur Reykjavik

Breidablik

1–2Full time

Vikingur Reykjavik

Úrvalsdeild · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01

Breidablik 1–2 Vikingur Reykjavik VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vikingur Reykjavik win~~51%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.252

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vikingur Reykjavik win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vikingur Reykjavik 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 27–21–52
1′KICK-OFF Breidablik v Vikingur Reykjavik
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' I. Arnason · Breidablik
19′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 51–23–26
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Breidablik 1–0 Vikingur Reykjavik
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Breidablik win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Vikingur Reykjavik win 26%)
20′Breidablik ahead on 19′ through J. Arnarsson. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–25
21′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Breidablik
23′Breidablik are down to ten from 22′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 52–23–24
24′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–23–24
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 54–24–22
30′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Breidablik · On: V. Margeirsson · Off: I. Arnason
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
38′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
41′A second red card for Breidablik on 41′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 57–25–18
41′🟥 RED CARD · 41' O. Skulason · Breidablik
45′HALF-TIME Breidablik 1–0 Vikingur Reykjavik
45′SECOND HALF Breidablik 1–0 Vikingur Reykjavik
51′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
61′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 22–43–35
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Breidablik 1–1 Vikingur Reykjavik
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 35% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Breidablik win 22%)
62′D. Hafsteinsson scores for Vikingur Reykjavik on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–44–34
63′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: S. Hauksson · Off: A. Finnbogason
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: D. Jonsson · Off: S. Thordarson
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Breidablik · On: T. Ulfarsson · Off: J. Arnarsson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Breidablik · On: A. Bjarnason · Off: B. Thorsteinsson
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
68′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
68′68′: S. Hauksson on the scoresheet for Vikingur Reykjavik, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–80
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Breidablik 1–2 Vikingur Reykjavik
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Vikingur Reykjavik win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: N. Hansen · Off: A. Thrandarson
76′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Breidablik · On: G. Hallsson · Off: H. Karlsson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Breidablik · On: A. Gunnleifsson · Off: V. Einarsson
83′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–2 · 1–9–91
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: S. Stefansson · Off: O. Ekroth
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Vikingur Reykjavik win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vikingur Reykjavik · On: K. Gunnarsson · Off: D. Atlason
89′We said Vikingur Reykjavik at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' N. Hansen · Vikingur Reykjavik
90′🟥 RED CARD · 89' A. Orrason · Breidablik
91′Breidablik are down to eight from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–4–96
93′Breidablik have eight men and Vikingur Reykjavik ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' D. Hafsteinsson · Vikingur Reykjavik
FTFULL TIME Breidablik 1–2 Vikingur Reykjavik
FTBreidablik 1–2 Vikingur Reykjavik · Vikingur Reykjavik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vikingur Reykjavik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Breidablik 27%, draw 21%, Vikingur Reykjavik 51%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Breidablik v Vikingur ReykjavikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Breidablik win27%

Draw21%

Vikingur Reykjavik win51%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:15

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 4

Line-ups

Breidablik

Vikingur Reykjavik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Breidablik

Vikingur Reykjavik

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Úrvalsdeild

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Breidablik

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Einarsson

14 H. Karlsson

4 A. Orrason

5 I. Arnason

9 O. Omarsson

13 A. Ludviksson

7 H. Gunnlaugsson

18 D. Ingvarsson

8 V. Einarsson

77 B. Thorsteinsson

22 J. Arnarsson

Coach · Olafur Skulason

Substitutes

12 · G. Snaeholm

21 · V. Margeirsson

29 · G. Hallsson

10 · K. Steindorsson

32 · K. Bjorgvinsson

99 · T. Ulfarsson

11 · A. Bjarnason

16 · D. Fjeldsted

33 · A. Gunnleifsson

Vikingur Reykjavik

Formation not confirmed

29 A. Fridriksson

24 D. Atlason

4 O. Ekroth

15 R. Thorkelsson

9 H. Gudjonsson

11 D. Hafsteinsson

8 V. Andrason

69 A. Finnbogason

25 V. Ingimundarson

77 S. Thordarson

21 A. Thrandarson

Coach · Solvi Ottesen

Substitutes

99 · U. Audunsson

22 · K. Gunnarsson

2 · S. Thorkelsson

5 · S. Stefansson

30 · S. Hauksson

27 · S. Gudjohnsen

18 · D. Jonsson

23 · N. Hansen

52 · V. Bjarnason

Our number · vikingur reykjavik winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make Vikingur Reykjavik a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Breidablik v Vikingur Reykjavik~~1.48 – 2.09

~~Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 30 v 53~~4 v 1

~~The market · Vikingur Reykjavik win~~59% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vikingur Reykjavik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Breidablik win	27%	21%	+6
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Vikingur Reykjavik win	51%	59%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Both teams to score	67%	65%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Breidablik or draw	49%	41%	+8
Breidablik clean sheet	13%	–	–
Vikingur Reykjavik clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.0 5.9 6.1 4.3 2.3 1 4.2 8.7 8.9 6.2 3.3 2 3.1 6.4 6.6 4.6 2.4 3 3.2 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Breidablik down, Vikingur Reykjavik across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 930 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Breidablik at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vikingur Reykjavik away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Breidablik, 2.09 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRE 3–0 VIK · BRE 1–4 VIK · VIK 1–1 BRE · BRE 1–2 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild this season · since 23 Aug

BREIDABLIK

LLLWLW3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 3–1

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK

WDDWWD2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	−2	30
6	Keflavik	22	−5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	−8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	−6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	−12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	−28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	−13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	−13	18