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Breidablik v Keflavik

Breidablik

3–1Full time

Keflavik

Úrvalsdeild · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:46

Breidablik 3–1 Keflavik BREIDABLIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Breidablik win~~58%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Breidablik win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Breidablik was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–21
20′Breidablik ahead on 18′ through V. Einarsson. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
42′We published Breidablik at 58%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
45′SECOND HALF Breidablik 1–0 Keflavik
46′Breidablik ahead on 18′ through V. Einarsson. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: A. Magnusson · Off: S. Magnusson
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: N. Heras · Off: E. Karlsson
51′We published Breidablik at 58%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
59′We published Breidablik at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–4
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Breidablik 2–0 Keflavik · V. Einarsson
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Breidablik 2–0 Keflavik · J. Arnarsson (assist H. Gunnlaugsson)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Breidablik · On: B. Thorsteinsson · Off: J. Arnarsson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Breidablik · On: D. Ingvarsson · Off: K. Steindorsson
71′J. Arnarsson scores for Breidablik on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Breidablik 2–1 Keflavik · E. Ragnarsson (assist A. Conteh)
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Breidablik · On: A. Gunnleifsson · Off: T. Ulfarsson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Breidablik · On: D. Fjeldsted · Off: I. Arnason
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Keflavik · On: B. L. Brynjarsson · Off: V. A. Traustason
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Keflavik · On: A. Adalbjorssnos · Off: M. Simicic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Keflavik · On: R. Holmarsson · Off: A. Conteh
89′⚽ GOAL · 18' Breidablik 2–1 Keflavik · V. Einarsson (assist O. Omarsson)
89′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: A. Magnusson · Off: S. Magnusson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Keflavik · On: N. Heras · Off: E. Karlsson
89′⚽ GOAL · 69' Breidablik 2–1 Keflavik · J. Arnarsson (assist H. Gunnlaugsson)
89′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Breidablik · On: D. Ingvarsson · Off: K. Steindorsson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Breidablik · On: B. Thorsteinsson · Off: J. Arnarsson
89′⚽ GOAL · 76' Breidablik 2–1 Keflavik · E. Ragnarsson (assist A. Conteh)
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Breidablik · On: A. Gunnleifsson · Off: T. Ulfarsson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Breidablik · On: D. Fjeldsted · Off: I. Arnason
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Keflavik · On: B. L. Brynjarsson · Off: V. A. Traustason
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Keflavik · On: A. Adalbjorssnos · Off: M. Simicic
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Keflavik · On: R. Holmarsson · Off: A. Conteh
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Breidablik · On: G. Hallsson · Off: V. Einarsson
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Breidablik 3–1 Keflavik · E. Ragnarsson
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Breidablik 3–1 Keflavik · H. Gunnlaugsson
92′Breidablik ahead on 90′ through H. Gunnlaugsson. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Breidablik win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Breidablik 3–1 Keflavik
FTBreidablik 3–1 Keflavik · Breidablik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Breidablik win58%

Draw20%

Keflavik win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:15

Line-ups

Breidablik

Keflavik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Breidablik

Keflavik

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
9	Keflavik	24	−8	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Breidablik

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Snaeholm

9 O. Omarsson

14 H. Karlsson

4 A. Orrason

5 I. Arnason

13 A. Ludviksson

10 K. Steindorsson

8 V. Einarsson

7 H. Gunnlaugsson

22 J. Arnarsson

99 T. Ulfarsson

Coach · Olafur Skulason

Substitutes

1 · A. Einarsson

21 · V. Margeirsson

18 · D. Ingvarsson

29 · G. Hallsson

32 · K. Bjorgvinsson

16 · D. Fjeldsted

77 · B. Thorsteinsson

33 · A. Gunnleifsson

24 · B. O. Jonsson

Keflavik

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Magnusson

3 A. Johannesson

88 M. Simicic

20 M. Brigic

47 E. Karlsson

28 V. A. Traustason

6 S. Magnusson

23 E. Ragnarsson

7 D. Valsson

21 A. Conteh

10 S. Ljubicic

Coach · Haraldur Gudmundsson

Substitutes

12 · H. Hermannsson

22 · A. Magnusson

4 · N. Heras

2 · E. Bwomono

25 · F. Elvarsson

42 · B. L. Brynjarsson

18 · E. Bjarnason

26 · R. Holmarsson

15 · A. Adalbjorssnos

Our number · breidablik winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

58% The market50%

Us58%

~~Market~~50%

We make Breidablik a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · breidablik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Breidablik win	58%	50%	+8
Draw	20%	23%	−2
Keflavik win	22%	27%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	72%	−5
Both teams to score	63%	71%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	85%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Breidablik or draw	78%	73%	+6
Breidablik clean sheet	29%	–	–
Keflavik clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.4 4.1 2.6 1 7.0 8.8 5.5 2.3 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.5 6.8 4.3 4 3.0 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Breidablik down, Keflavik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 928 Úrvalsdeild matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Úrvalsdeild matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Breidablik at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Keflavik away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Breidablik, 1.26 for Keflavik. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRE 2–1 KEF · KEF 0–0 BRE · BRE 2–1 KEF · KEF 0–0 BRE

Form · last six in Úrvalsdeild

BREIDABLIK

DLLLWL3–3 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–4

KEFLAVIK

WWLLLD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	+50	59
2	KR Reykjavik	25	+29	50
3	Fram Reykjavik	25	+11	46
4	Breidablik	24	+1	33
5	IA Akranes	24	−3	33
6	Valur Reykjavik	25	−5	31
7	Stjarnan	25	−12	31
8	FH hafnarfjordur	25	−4	30
9	Keflavik	24	−8	29
10	KA Akureyri	25	−10	26
11	Thor Akureyri	25	−33	24
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	25	−16	19