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Szekszárd v Dunaharaszti MTK

Szekszárd

1–4Full time

Dunaharaszti MTK

NB III - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Szekszárd 1–4 Dunaharaszti MTK DUNAHARASZTI MTK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunaharaszti MTK win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.184

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Szekszárd win18%

Draw17%

Dunaharaszti MTK win65%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunaharaszti mtk winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Dunaharaszti MTK a 65% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Szekszárd win	18%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Szekszárd or draw	35%	–	–
Szekszárd clean sheet	9%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 2.4 5.0 6.2 5.4 3.8 2.41 2.8 6.7 7.9 6.6 4.6 2.82 4.4 5.2 4.3 2.9 3 2.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Szekszárd down, Dunaharaszti MTK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 NB III - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Szekszárd at home: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dunaharaszti MTK away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Szekszárd, 2.78 for Dunaharaszti MTK. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SZE 1–1 DUN · DUN 1–1 SZE

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

SZEKSZÁRD

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–8

DUNAHARASZTI MTK

WLLDWW3–1 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	9	+9	16
3	PTE-PEAC	9	+6	16
4	Budafoki LC	9	+5	16
5	Ferencváros II	9	+6	15
6	Iváncsa	9	+1	15
7	Siofok	9	+5	14
8	Majosi	9	0	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	−2	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	9	−10	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	−4	6
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	9	−34	0