Siofok v Pécsi MFC prediction · NB III - Southwest

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC PÉCSI MFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pécsi MFC win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.246

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pécsi MFC win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pécsi MFC 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 18–21–60
1′KICK-OFF Siofok v Pécsi MFC
35′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Siofok
38′A goal for Pécsi MFC on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–14–82
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Pécsi MFC win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Pécsi MFC win: 60% at kick-off, 56% now
39′A goal for Pécsi MFC on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–14–82
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Pécsi MFC win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Pécsi MFC win: 60% at kick-off, 56% now
45′HALF-TIME Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Pécsi MFC win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
46′SECOND HALF Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC
FTFULL TIME Siofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC
FTSiofok 0–1 Pécsi MFC · Pécsi MFC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Siofok win19%

Draw22%

Pécsi MFC win60%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Siofok

Pécsi MFC

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
9	Siofok	9	+5	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pécsi mfc winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Pécsi MFC a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siofok win	19%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Pécsi MFC win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Siofok or draw	40%	–	–
Siofok clean sheet	15%	–	–
Pécsi MFC clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.1%

0123450 5.8 10.1 9.9 6.6 3.4 1 5.1 10.0 9.3 6.1 3.1 2 2.7 4.9 4.6 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siofok down, Pécsi MFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,554 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siofok at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pécsi MFC away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Siofok, 1.99 for Pécsi MFC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PEC 4–0 SIO · SIO 0–5 PEC · PEC 1–1 SIO · SIO 1–0 PEC

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

SIOFOK

DDWWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

PÉCSI MFC

WWWWDW2–1 · 7–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	Iváncsa	10	0	15
8	Majosi	10	0	15
9	Siofok	9	+5	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0