Sárbogárd v Paksi SE II prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Sárbogárd 0–6 Paksi SE II PAKSI SE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paksi SE II win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paksi SE II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sárbogárd 31%, draw 21%, Paksi SE II 48%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Sárbogárd v Paksi SE IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sárbogárd win31%

Draw21%

Paksi SE II win48%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sárbogárd

Paksi SE II

7Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	−22	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paksi se ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Paksi SE II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sárbogárd v Paksi SE II~~1.55 – 2.01

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sárbogárd win	31%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Paksi SE II win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Sárbogárd or draw	52%	–	–
Sárbogárd clean sheet	15%	–	–
Paksi SE II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.4 5.8 5.8 3.9 2.1 1 4.5 8.9 8.4 5.6 2.9 2 3.6 6.7 6.4 4.2 2.2 3 3.5 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sárbogárd down, Paksi SE II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 NB III - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sárbogárd at home: 0.80 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 5). Paksi SE II away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Sárbogárd, 2.01 for Paksi SE II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

SÁRBOGÁRD

LWLDLL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–7

PAKSI SE II

LDLLWD2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 8–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	12	+30	34
2	Kaposvar	11	+17	22
3	Ferencváros II	11	+11	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	+4	20
5	Iváncsa	11	+3	18
6	Majosi	11	+1	18
7	Budafoki LC	11	+3	17
8	PTE-PEAC	11	+1	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	+6	15
10	Érdi VSE	11	0	15
11	Siofok	11	+3	14
12	Budaörs	11	−13	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	−22	5
15	Szekszárd	11	−40	0