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PTE-PEAC v Ferencváros II

PTE-PEAC

1–4Full time

Ferencváros II

NB III - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

PTE-PEAC 1–4 Ferencváros II FERENCVÁROS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferencváros II win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencváros II win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferencváros II was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 29–24–46
1′KICK-OFF PTE-PEAC v Ferencváros II
45′HALF-TIME PTE-PEAC 0–0 Ferencváros II
46′SECOND HALF PTE-PEAC 0–0 Ferencváros II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ferencváros II win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' PTE-PEAC 1–0 Ferencváros II
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' PTE-PEAC 1–1 Ferencváros II
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' PTE-PEAC 1–2 Ferencváros II
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' PTE-PEAC 1–3 Ferencváros II
69′Ferencváros II find the net on 68′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Ferencváros II win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
89′We published Ferencváros II at 46%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' PTE-PEAC 1–4 Ferencváros II
FTFULL TIME PTE-PEAC 1–4 Ferencváros II
FTPTE-PEAC 1–4 Ferencváros II · Ferencváros II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PTE-PEAC win29%

Draw24%

Ferencváros II win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferencváros ii winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Ferencváros II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PTE-PEAC win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Ferencváros II win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
PTE-PEAC or draw	54%	–	–
PTE-PEAC clean sheet	20%	–	–
Ferencváros II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 8.7 7.3 4.1 1 6.6 11.2 8.9 5.0 2.2 2 4.4 6.9 5.7 3.2 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PTE-PEAC down, Ferencváros II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 NB III - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PTE-PEAC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ferencváros II away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for PTE-PEAC, 1.67 for Ferencváros II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FER 4–1 PTE · PTE 1–3 FER · FER 3–1 PTE · PTE 1–3 FER

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

PTE-PEAC

WWDDDD1–0 · 6–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

FERENCVÁROS II

WWDLDW5–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	9	+9	16
3	PTE-PEAC	9	+6	16
4	Budafoki LC	9	+5	16
5	Ferencváros II	9	+6	15
6	Iváncsa	9	+1	15
7	Siofok	9	+5	14
8	Majosi	9	0	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	−2	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	9	−10	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	−4	6
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	9	−34	0