Pécsi MFC v Szekszárd prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Pécsi MFC 3–0 Szekszárd PÉCSI MFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pécsi MFC win~~94%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.006

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pécsi MFC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pécsi MFC 94%, draw 4%, Szekszárd 2%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Pécsi MFC v SzekszárdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pécsi MFC win94%

Draw4%

Szekszárd win2%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pécsi MFC

Szekszárd

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pécsi mfc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

94% The market–

Us94%

We make Pécsi MFC a 94% chance to win. The model expects 4.9–0.6, and 4–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pécsi MFC v Szekszárd~~4.89 – 0.56

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 31 v 0~~1 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pécsi MFC win	94%	–	–
Draw	4%	–	–
Szekszárd win	2%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Pécsi MFC or draw	98%	–	–
Pécsi MFC clean sheet	58%	–	–
Szekszárd clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 9.1%

0123450 1 3.1 2 6.2 3.7 3 8.5 4.9 4 9.1 5.1 5 8.3 4.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Pécsi MFC down, Szekszárd across0–5 goals a side shown (64.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pécsi MFC at home: 3.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Szekszárd away: 0.50 scored, 5.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.89 goals for Pécsi MFC, 0.56 for Szekszárd. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SZE 1–4 PEC · PEC 4–0 SZE · PEC 2–0 SZE · SZE 0–1 PEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

PÉCSI MFC

WWWDWW7–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

SZEKSZÁRD

LLLLLL0–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–8 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0