MTK Budapest II v Sárbogárd prediction · NB III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MTK Budapest IIDrawSárbogárd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · MTK Budapest II 84%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MTK Budapest II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MTK Budapest II 84%, draw 10%, Sárbogárd 6%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on MTK Budapest II v SárbogárdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

MTK Budapest II win84%

Draw10%

Sárbogárd win6%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MTK Budapest II

Sárbogárd

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	MTK Budapest II	11	+5	15
14	Sárbogárd	12	−28	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mtk budapest ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

84% The market–

Us84%

We make MTK Budapest II an 84% chance to win. The model expects 3.6–0.9, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MTK Budapest II v Sárbogárd~~3.61 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MTK Budapest II win	84%	–	–
Draw	10%	–	–
Sárbogárd win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
MTK Budapest II or draw	94%	–	–
MTK Budapest II clean sheet	41%	–	–
Sárbogárd clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.2%

0123450 1 4.4 4.0 2 7.3 6.5 3.0 3 8.2 7.3 3.4 4 7.2 6.3 2.9 5 5.2 4.5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+MTK Budapest II down, Sárbogárd across0–5 goals a side shown (83.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,570 NB III - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

MTK Budapest II at home: 4.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sárbogárd away: 0.83 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.61 goals for MTK Budapest II, 0.91 for Sárbogárd. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

MTK BUDAPEST II

WLLWLL4–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–5 · 3–4

SÁRBOGÁRD

WLDLLL2–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–7 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	13	+36	37
2	Kaposvar	12	+18	25
3	Ferencváros II	12	+9	21
4	Iváncsa	12	+6	21
5	Majosi	12	+2	21
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	+4	20
7	Budafoki LC	12	+3	18
8	Siofok	12	+5	17
9	Érdi VSE	12	0	16
10	PTE-PEAC	12	−2	16
11	MTK Budapest II	11	+5	15
12	Budaörs	12	−19	12
13	Paksi SE II	12	+2	10
14	Sárbogárd	12	−28	5
15	Szekszárd	12	−41	0