MTK Budapest II v Érdi VSE prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

MTK Budapest II 3–1 Érdi VSE MTK BUDAPEST II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MTK Budapest II win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MTK Budapest II win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MTK Budapest II 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–22
1′KICK-OFF MTK Budapest II v Érdi VSE
8′Little has changed for our model: MTK Budapest II 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' MTK Budapest II 1–0 Érdi VSE
43′40′ and it is 1–0: MTK Budapest II have scored. 1–0 · 78–16–6
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 49% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 49% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' MTK Budapest II win: 57% at kick-off, 49% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' MTK Budapest II 2–0 Érdi VSE
45′HALF-TIME MTK Budapest II 2–0 Érdi VSE
46′SECOND HALF MTK Budapest II 2–0 Érdi VSE
49′PENALTY MISSED · 49' MTK Budapest II
81′PENALTY MISSED · 80' MTK Budapest II
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' MTK Budapest II 3–0 Érdi VSE
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' MTK Budapest II 3–1 Érdi VSE
FTFULL TIME MTK Budapest II 3–1 Érdi VSE
FTMTK Budapest II 3–1 Érdi VSE · MTK Budapest II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

MTK Budapest II win57%

Draw20%

Érdi VSE win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

MTK Budapest II

Érdi VSE

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mtk budapest ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

57% The market–

Us57%

We make MTK Budapest II a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MTK Budapest II win	57%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Érdi VSE win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
MTK Budapest II or draw	77%	–	–
MTK Budapest II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Érdi VSE clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 3.7 2.6 1 6.1 8.3 5.5 2.5 2 6.8 8.9 6.0 2.8 3 5.1 6.6 4.5 2.1 4 2.9 3.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MTK Budapest II down, Érdi VSE across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,554 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MTK Budapest II at home: 3.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Érdi VSE away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for MTK Budapest II, 1.37 for Érdi VSE. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ERD 1–0 MTK · MTK 2–1 ERD · MTK 1–2 ERD · ERD 5–3 MTK

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

MTK BUDAPEST II

LLWWLL1–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

ÉRDI VSE

LLDWLW1–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 4–3 · 1–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	Iváncsa	10	0	15
8	Majosi	10	0	15
9	Siofok	9	+5	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0