Majosi v Siofok prediction · NB III - Southwest

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Majosi 3–2 Siofok MAJOSI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Majosi win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Majosi win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Majosi was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
1′KICK-OFF Majosi v Siofok
14′Majosi find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–12
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Majosi 1–0 Siofok
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
15′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–16–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
45′HALF-TIME Majosi 1–0 Siofok
46′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
46′SECOND HALF Majosi 1–0 Siofok
49′A goal for Siofok on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–34–25
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Majosi 1–1 Siofok
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
51′We said Majosi at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–35–25
53′We said Majosi at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–36–24
55′Majosi score on 55′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–6
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Majosi 2–1 Siofok
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
64′Majosi find the net on 64′. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
64′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Majosi 3–1 Siofok
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
65′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–4–1
70′A goal for Siofok on 70′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 81–16–3
70′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 81%. 3–2 · 81–16–3
70′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 81–16–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Majosi 3–2 Siofok
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
77′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
78′PENALTY MISSED · 78' Siofok
83′We published Majosi at 52%. Our model now makes it 91%. 3–2 · 91–9–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
93′Siofok score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 3–94–2
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Majosi 3–3 Siofok
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 3% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Majosi win 3%)
94′We said Majosi at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–3 · 2–96–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Siofok
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Majosi win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Majosi win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Majosi 3–2 Siofok
FTMajosi 3–2 Siofok · Majosi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Majosi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Majosi 52%, draw 21%, Siofok 27%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Majosi v SiofokBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Majosi win52%

Draw21%

Siofok win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Majosi

Siofok

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · majosi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Majosi a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Majosi v Siofok~~2.15 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Majosi win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Siofok win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Majosi or draw	73%	–	–
Majosi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Siofok clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 4.0 3.1 1 5.7 8.5 6.2 3.1 2 5.9 8.6 6.4 3.2 3 4.2 6.1 4.5 2.3 4 2.3 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Majosi down, Siofok across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Majosi at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Siofok away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Majosi, 1.52 for Siofok. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAJ 2–3 SIO · SIO 1–3 MAJ · SIO 2–1 MAJ · MAJ 2–2 SIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

MAJOSI

LWWWDD0–5 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

SIOFOK

DWWWLL1–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0