Kaposvar v Sárbogárd prediction · NB III - Southwest

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Kaposvar 7–0 Sárbogárd KAPOSVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kaposvar win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.066

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kaposvar win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kaposvar was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–8
1′KICK-OFF Kaposvar v Sárbogárd
7′A goal for Kaposvar on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
7′We published Kaposvar at 79%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Kaposvar 1–0 Sárbogárd
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Kaposvar win: 79% at kick-off, 92% now
22′Kaposvar score on 21′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
22′We published Kaposvar at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Kaposvar 2–0 Sárbogárd
34′Kaposvar find the net on 34′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Kaposvar 3–0 Sárbogárd
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Kaposvar win: 79% at kick-off, over 99% now
35′We published Kaposvar at 79%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
39′A goal for Kaposvar on 39′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kaposvar 4–0 Sárbogárd
40′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Kaposvar 4–0 Sárbogárd
46′SECOND HALF Kaposvar 4–0 Sárbogárd
62′Kaposvar score on 62′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kaposvar 5–0 Sárbogárd
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′Kaposvar find the net on 87′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
87′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kaposvar 6–0 Sárbogárd
89′A goal for Kaposvar on 89′ — 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
89′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kaposvar 7–0 Sárbogárd
FTFULL TIME Kaposvar 7–0 Sárbogárd
FTKaposvar 7–0 Sárbogárd · Kaposvar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaposvar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaposvar 79%, draw 13%, Sárbogárd 8%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kaposvar v SárbogárdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kaposvar win79%

Draw13%

Sárbogárd win8%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaposvar

Sárbogárd

7Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 3 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaposvar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Kaposvar a 79% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaposvar v Sárbogárd~~2.93 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 5~~2 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaposvar win	79%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Sárbogárd win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Kaposvar or draw	92%	–	–
Kaposvar clean sheet	46%	–	–
Sárbogárd clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 2.9 2.1 1 7.4 5.9 2.3 2 10.3 8.0 3.2 3 9.7 7.5 3.0 4 7.1 5.4 2.2 5 4.3 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaposvar down, Sárbogárd across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kaposvar at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sárbogárd away: 1.00 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.93 goals for Kaposvar, 0.79 for Sárbogárd. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

KAPOSVAR

WLLDLW4–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

SÁRBOGÁRD

DLWLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0