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Kaposvar v Iváncsa

Kaposvar

1–0Full time

Iváncsa

NB III - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Kaposvar 1–0 Iváncsa KAPOSVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kaposvar win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kaposvar win57%

Draw20%

Iváncsa win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaposvar winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Kaposvar a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaposvar win	57%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Iváncsa win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Kaposvar or draw	77%	–	–
Kaposvar clean sheet	27%	–	–
Iváncsa clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.2 3.7 2.6 1 6.2 8.4 5.5 2.5 2 6.9 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 5.1 6.6 4.4 2.0 4 3.0 3.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaposvar down, Iváncsa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 NB III - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaposvar at home: 3.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Iváncsa away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Kaposvar, 1.34 for Iváncsa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAP 2–0 IVA · IVA 0–2 KAP · IVA 3–1 KAP · KAP 1–5 IVA

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

KAPOSVAR

WWLLDL3–1 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–3

IVÁNCSA

LLLWWW1–3 · 0–7 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	9	+9	16
3	PTE-PEAC	9	+6	16
4	Budafoki LC	9	+5	16
5	Ferencváros II	9	+6	15
6	Iváncsa	9	+1	15
7	Siofok	9	+5	14
8	Majosi	9	0	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	−2	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	9	−10	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	−4	6
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	9	−34	0