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Iváncsa v MTK Budapest II

Iváncsa
5–2Full time
MTK Budapest II

NB III - Southwest · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Iváncsa 5–2 MTK Budapest II IVÁNCSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Iváncsa win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Iváncsa win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Iváncsa 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Iváncsa v MTK Budapest II
  4. 7′Iváncsa find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–17–17
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Iváncsa 1–0 MTK Budapest II
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 8′We said Iváncsa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–18–17
  8. 17′A goal for MTK Budapest II on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–25–34
  9. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Iváncsa 1–1 MTK Budapest II
  10. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
  11. 29′Iváncsa score on 28′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 67–19–13
  12. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Iváncsa 2–1 MTK Budapest II
  13. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
  14. 30′MTK Budapest II find the net on 30′. 2–2. 2–2 · 39–28–32
  15. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Iváncsa 2–2 MTK Budapest II
  16. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
  17. 31′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 39–28–32
  18. 33′A goal for Iváncsa on 33′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 68–19–13
  19. 33′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 68–19–13
  20. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Iváncsa 3–2 MTK Budapest II
  21. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
  22. 36′Iváncsa score on 36′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 88–8–4
  23. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Iváncsa 4–2 MTK Budapest II
  24. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 88% now
  25. 37′We said Iváncsa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 4–2 · 88–8–4
  26. 37′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 88–8–4
  27. 44′We said Iváncsa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 4–2 · 90–8–3
  28. 45′HALF-TIME Iváncsa 4–2 MTK Budapest II
  29. 46′SECOND HALF Iváncsa 4–2 MTK Budapest II
  30. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Iváncsa win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  31. 64′We said Iváncsa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  32. 85′We said Iváncsa at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  33. 88′Iváncsa find the net on 88′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  34. 88′7 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  35. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Iváncsa 5–2 MTK Budapest II
  36. FTFULL TIME Iváncsa 5–2 MTK Budapest II
  37. FTIváncsa 5–2 MTK Budapest II · Iváncsa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iváncsa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iváncsa 43%, draw 22%, MTK Budapest II 35%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Iváncsa v MTK Budapest IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Iváncsa win43%
Draw22%
MTK Budapest II win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iváncsa

MTK Budapest II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7MTK Budapest II9+915
8Iváncsa10015

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iváncsa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Iváncsa a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Iváncsa v MTK Budapest II1.83 – 1.62
Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 15 AugW3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 15 v 158 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 11:42
Our probability · Iváncsa win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Iváncsa win43%––
Draw22%––
MTK Budapest II win35%––
Over 2.5 goals66%––
Both teams to score66%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals45%––
Iváncsa or draw65%––
Iváncsa clean sheet21%––
MTK Budapest II clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%
0123450 3.7 5.1 4.3 2.4 1 5.8 9.3 7.2 4.0 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.4 5.1 4.0 2.1 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Iváncsa down, MTK Budapest II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsIVA 0–0 MTK · MTK 2–1 IVA · IVA 2–0 MTK · MTK 2–1 IVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 15 Aug

IVÁNCSA

LLWWWL0–7 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

MTK BUDAPEST II

LWWLLW0–1 · 4–2 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pécsi MFC11+2731
2Kaposvar10+1019
3Ferencváros II10+918
4Budafoki LC10+517
5Dunaharaszti MTK11+117
6PTE-PEAC10+316
7MTK Budapest II9+915
8Iváncsa10015
9Majosi10015
10Siofok10+414
11Érdi VSE10−212
12Budaörs10−1012
13Paksi SE II11−47
14Sárbogárd10−155
15Szekszárd10−370

The competition's standings before kick-off.