Ferencváros II v Budafoki LC prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Ferencváros II 3–1 Budafoki LC FERENCVÁROS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferencváros II win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencváros II win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferencváros II was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–19–21
1′KICK-OFF Ferencváros II v Budafoki LC
3′Ferencváros II score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–12–9
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Ferencváros II 1–0 Budafoki LC
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 79% now
4′We published Ferencváros II at 60%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–12–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
45′HALF-TIME Ferencváros II 1–0 Budafoki LC
46′SECOND HALF Ferencváros II 1–0 Budafoki LC
49′We published Ferencváros II at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
58′Ferencváros II find the net on 58′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
58′We published Ferencváros II at 60%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ferencváros II 2–0 Budafoki LC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
63′A goal for Budafoki LC on 62′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ferencváros II 2–1 Budafoki LC
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
65′Budafoki LC score on 65′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–45–18
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ferencváros II 2–2 Budafoki LC
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 37% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Ferencváros II win 37%)
66′We said Ferencváros II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 2–2 · 36–46–17
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Budafoki LC
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Ferencváros II win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
71′We said Ferencváros II at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–53–16
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 32–53–16
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ferencváros II 2–2 Budafoki LC
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 32% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Ferencváros II win 32%)
72′We published Ferencváros II at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Budafoki LC
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Ferencváros II win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
79′Ferencváros II score on 79′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Ferencváros II 3–1 Budafoki LC
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
83′We published Ferencváros II at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Ferencváros II win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Ferencváros II 3–1 Budafoki LC
FTFerencváros II 3–1 Budafoki LC · Ferencváros II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencváros II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferencváros II 60%, draw 19%, Budafoki LC 21%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Ferencváros II v Budafoki LCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ferencváros II win60%

Draw19%

Budafoki LC win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferencváros II

Budafoki LC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferencváros ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Ferencváros II a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferencváros II v Budafoki LC~~2.37 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencváros II win	60%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Budafoki LC win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Ferencváros II or draw	79%	–	–
Ferencváros II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Budafoki LC clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 3.5 2.3 1 6.2 8.0 5.1 2.3 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.6 3 5.5 6.8 4.4 4 3.3 4.1 2.6 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencváros II down, Budafoki LC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ferencváros II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Budafoki LC away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Ferencváros II, 1.31 for Budafoki LC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

FERENCVÁROS II

WDLDWW1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

BUDAFOKI LC

WWWLLD4–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0