Érdi VSE v PTE-PEAC prediction · NB III - Southwest

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Érdi VSE 3–1 PTE-PEAC ÉRDI VSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Érdi VSE win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.307

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Érdi VSE win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Érdi VSE 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Érdi VSE v PTE-PEAC
33′A goal for Érdi VSE on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′We said Érdi VSE at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Érdi VSE 1–0 PTE-PEAC
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Érdi VSE win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
44′Érdi VSE score on 44′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Érdi VSE 2–0 PTE-PEAC
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Érdi VSE win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
45′We said Érdi VSE at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Érdi VSE 2–0 PTE-PEAC
46′SECOND HALF Érdi VSE 2–0 PTE-PEAC
47′We said Érdi VSE at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Érdi VSE win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
48′PTE-PEAC find the net on 47′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–16–5
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Érdi VSE 2–1 PTE-PEAC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Érdi VSE win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
55′We said Érdi VSE at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
60′A goal for Érdi VSE on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Érdi VSE 3–1 PTE-PEAC
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Érdi VSE win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
82′We said Érdi VSE at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Érdi VSE 3–1 PTE-PEAC
FTÉrdi VSE 3–1 PTE-PEAC · Érdi VSE win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Érdi VSE are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Érdi VSE 55%, draw 22%, PTE-PEAC 23%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Érdi VSE v PTE-PEACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Érdi VSE win55%

Draw22%

PTE-PEAC win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Érdi VSE

PTE-PEAC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · érdi vse winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Érdi VSE a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Érdi VSE v PTE-PEAC~~1.98 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Érdi VSE win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Érdi VSE win	55%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
PTE-PEAC win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Érdi VSE or draw	77%	–	–
Érdi VSE clean sheet	31%	–	–
PTE-PEAC clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.7 5.0 3.1 1 8.2 9.9 5.8 2.4 2 8.1 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 5.3 6.1 3.7 4 2.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Érdi VSE down, PTE-PEAC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Érdi VSE at home: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). PTE-PEAC away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Érdi VSE, 1.21 for PTE-PEAC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PTE 1–0 ERD · ERD 2–0 PTE · PTE 2–0 ERD · ERD 1–2 PTE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

ÉRDI VSE

LDWLWL2–3 · 3–3 · 4–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–3

PTE-PEAC

WDDDDL6–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0