Dunaharaszti MTK v Paksi SE II prediction · NB III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dunaharaszti MTKDrawPaksi SE II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dunaharaszti MTK 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunaharaszti MTK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunaharaszti MTK 57%, draw 19%, Paksi SE II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Dunaharaszti MTK v Paksi SE IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dunaharaszti MTK win57%

Draw19%

Paksi SE II win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunaharaszti MTK

Paksi SE II

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 24 Oct · NB III - Southwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	+4	20
13	Paksi SE II	12	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunaharaszti mtk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Dunaharaszti MTK a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunaharaszti MTK v Paksi SE II~~2.37 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunaharaszti MTK win	57%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Paksi SE II win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK or draw	76%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK clean sheet	24%	–	–
Paksi SE II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.6 3.3 2.5 1 5.3 7.6 5.4 2.7 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.1 3 4.7 6.6 4.7 2.4 4 2.8 3.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunaharaszti MTK down, Paksi SE II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,570 NB III - Southwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunaharaszti MTK at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paksi SE II away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Dunaharaszti MTK, 1.48 for Paksi SE II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAK 2–0 DUN · DUN 1–1 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 5 Sept

DUNAHARASZTI MTK

LDWWWW2–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0

PAKSI SE II

DLLWDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 8–1 · 1–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	13	+36	37
2	Kaposvar	12	+18	25
3	Ferencváros II	12	+9	21
4	Iváncsa	12	+6	21
5	Majosi	12	+2	21
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	+4	20
7	Budafoki LC	12	+3	18
8	Siofok	12	+5	17
9	Érdi VSE	12	0	16
10	PTE-PEAC	12	−2	16
11	MTK Budapest II	11	+5	15
12	Budaörs	12	−19	12
13	Paksi SE II	12	+2	10
14	Sárbogárd	12	−28	5
15	Szekszárd	12	−41	0