Dunaharaszti MTK v Budaörs prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Dunaharaszti MTK 3–0 Budaörs DUNAHARASZTI MTK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunaharaszti MTK win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.176

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunaharaszti MTK win at 66%.
2′Much as we predicted: Dunaharaszti MTK was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–17–18
2′KICK-OFF Dunaharaszti MTK v Budaörs
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Dunaharaszti MTK win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
40′Dunaharaszti MTK find the net on 40′. 0–0 · 56–25–19
41′We published Dunaharaszti MTK at 66%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Dunaharaszti MTK 1–0 Budaörs
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Dunaharaszti MTK win: 66% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Dunaharaszti MTK 1–0 Budaörs
46′SECOND HALF Dunaharaszti MTK 1–0 Budaörs
55′Dunaharaszti MTK find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
55′We published Dunaharaszti MTK at 66%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Dunaharaszti MTK 2–0 Budaörs
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Dunaharaszti MTK win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
65′PENALTY MISSED · 65' Dunaharaszti MTK
83′We published Dunaharaszti MTK at 66%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′A goal for Dunaharaszti MTK on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Dunaharaszti MTK 3–0 Budaörs
FTFULL TIME Dunaharaszti MTK 3–0 Budaörs
FTDunaharaszti MTK 3–0 Budaörs · Dunaharaszti MTK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunaharaszti MTK are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunaharaszti MTK 66%, draw 16%, Budaörs 18%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Dunaharaszti MTK v BudaörsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dunaharaszti MTK win66%

Draw16%

Budaörs win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunaharaszti MTK

Budaörs

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunaharaszti mtk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Dunaharaszti MTK a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunaharaszti MTK v Budaörs~~2.87 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunaharaszti MTK win	66%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Budaörs win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK or draw	82%	–	–
Dunaharaszti MTK clean sheet	25%	–	–
Budaörs clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.3 1 4.4 6.1 4.1 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 5.2 6.9 4.8 2.3 4 3.7 4.8 3.4 5 2.2 2.9 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunaharaszti MTK down, Budaörs across0–5 goals a side shown (90.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 NB III - Southwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Dunaharaszti MTK at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Budaörs away: 1.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.87 goals for Dunaharaszti MTK, 1.41 for Budaörs. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 26 Aug

DUNAHARASZTI MTK

LLDWWW2–4 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

BUDAÖRS

LLLWDD1–6 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	11	+27	31
2	Kaposvar	10	+10	19
3	Ferencváros II	10	+9	18
4	Budafoki LC	10	+5	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	+1	17
6	PTE-PEAC	10	+3	16
7	MTK Budapest II	9	+9	15
8	Iváncsa	10	0	15
9	Majosi	10	0	15
10	Siofok	10	+4	14
11	Érdi VSE	10	−2	12
12	Budaörs	10	−10	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	10	−37	0