Budaörs v Pécsi MFC prediction · NB III - Southwest

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Budaörs 0–6 Pécsi MFC PÉCSI MFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pécsi MFC win~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.099

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pécsi MFC win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pécsi MFC 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 11–15–74
1′KICK-OFF Budaörs v Pécsi MFC
16′Pécsi MFC find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–8–88
16′We said Pécsi MFC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 4–8–88
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Budaörs 0–1 Pécsi MFC
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Pécsi MFC win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
18′A goal for Pécsi MFC on 18′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Budaörs 0–2 Pécsi MFC
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Pécsi MFC win: 74% at kick-off, 96% now
19′We said Pécsi MFC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 1–3–97
22′Pécsi MFC score on 22′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Budaörs 0–3 Pécsi MFC
29′Pécsi MFC find the net on 29′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Budaörs 0–4 Pécsi MFC
30′We said Pécsi MFC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
30′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Budaörs 0–4 Pécsi MFC
46′SECOND HALF Budaörs 0–4 Pécsi MFC
63′A goal for Pécsi MFC on 63′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
63′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Budaörs 0–5 Pécsi MFC
80′Pécsi MFC score on 80′ to make it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
80′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Budaörs 0–6 Pécsi MFC
FTFULL TIME Budaörs 0–6 Pécsi MFC
FTBudaörs 0–6 Pécsi MFC · Pécsi MFC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pécsi MFC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Budaörs 11%, draw 15%, Pécsi MFC 74%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Budaörs v Pécsi MFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Budaörs win11%

Draw15%

Pécsi MFC win74%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundSouthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Budaörs

Pécsi MFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Southwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pécsi mfc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Pécsi MFC a 74% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.8, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Budaörs v Pécsi MFC~~0.93 – 2.84

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 34~~12 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budaörs win	11%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Pécsi MFC win	74%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Budaörs or draw	26%	–	–
Budaörs clean sheet	7%	–	–
Pécsi MFC clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.1%

0123450 2.9 6.9 9.1 8.3 5.9 3.61 2.5 6.5 8.2 7.3 5.1 3.02 3.1 3.9 3.4 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budaörs down, Pécsi MFC across0–5 goals a side shown (91.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 NB III - Southwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Budaörs at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pécsi MFC away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Budaörs, 2.84 for Pécsi MFC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUD 0–1 PEC · PEC 1–1 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest this season · since 29 Aug

BUDAÖRS

LLWDDL1–3 · 1–4 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

PÉCSI MFC

WWDWWW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	12	+30	34
2	Kaposvar	11	+17	22
3	Ferencváros II	11	+11	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	+4	20
5	Iváncsa	11	+3	18
6	Majosi	11	+1	18
7	Budafoki LC	11	+3	17
8	PTE-PEAC	11	+1	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	+6	15
10	Érdi VSE	11	0	15
11	Siofok	11	+3	14
12	Budaörs	11	−13	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	−4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	−22	5
15	Szekszárd	11	−40	0