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Budaörs v Paksi SE II

Budaörs

1–1Full time

Paksi SE II

NB III - Southwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Budaörs 1–1 Paksi SE II BUDAÖRS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Budaörs win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.982

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Budaörs win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Budaörs was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–20–37
1′KICK-OFF Budaörs v Paksi SE II
3′Much as we predicted: Budaörs was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–20–37
45′HALF-TIME Budaörs 0–0 Paksi SE II
46′SECOND HALF Budaörs 0–0 Paksi SE II
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Budaörs 0–1 Paksi SE II
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Paksi SE II
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Budaörs 1–1 Paksi SE II
FTFULL TIME Budaörs 1–1 Paksi SE II
FTBudaörs 1–1 Paksi SE II · Budaörs win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Budaörs win44%

Draw19%

Paksi SE II win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · budaörs winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Budaörs a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–2.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budaörs win	44%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Paksi SE II win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Budaörs or draw	63%	–	–
Budaörs clean sheet	14%	–	–
Paksi SE II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.6%

0123450 2.8 2.8 1 3.1 6.2 5.9 4.0 2.2 2 3.5 6.6 6.5 4.4 2.4 3 2.6 5.0 4.9 3.4 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budaörs down, Paksi SE II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 NB III - Southwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Budaörs at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paksi SE II away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Budaörs, 2.13 for Paksi SE II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in NB III - Southwest

BUDAÖRS

WLLLWD1–0 · 1–6 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 5–1 · 1–1

PAKSI SE II

LLDLLW1–3 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 8–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	9	+9	16
3	PTE-PEAC	9	+6	16
4	Budafoki LC	9	+5	16
5	Ferencváros II	9	+6	15
6	Iváncsa	9	+1	15
7	Siofok	9	+5	14
8	Majosi	9	0	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	−2	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	+7	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	0	12
12	Budaörs	9	−10	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	−4	6
14	Sárbogárd	10	−15	5
15	Szekszárd	9	−34	0