Újpest II v III. Kerületi TUE prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Újpest II 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE III. KERÜLETI TUE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said III. Kerületi TUE win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said III. Kerületi TUE win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: III. Kerületi TUE 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–23–40
1′KICK-OFF Újpest II v III. Kerületi TUE
45′HALF-TIME Újpest II 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE
46′SECOND HALF Újpest II 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was III. Kerületi TUE win 32%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–41–31
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' III. Kerületi TUE win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
61′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 26–46–28
68′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' III. Kerületi TUE win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
75′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
80′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' III. Kerületi TUE win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
91′We said III. Kerületi TUE at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Újpest II 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE
FTÚjpest II 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE · III. Kerületi TUE win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with III. Kerületi TUE just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Újpest II 36%, draw 23%, III. Kerületi TUE 40%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Újpest II v III. Kerületi TUEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Újpest II win36%

Draw23%

III. Kerületi TUE win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Újpest II

III. Kerületi TUE

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	III. Kerületi TUE	11	+11	25
5	Újpest II	11	+10	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iii. kerületi tue winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make III. Kerületi TUE a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Újpest II v III. Kerületi TUE~~1.58 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 25~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Újpest II win	36%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
III. Kerületi TUE win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Újpest II or draw	60%	–	–
Újpest II clean sheet	20%	–	–
III. Kerületi TUE clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 6.7 5.5 3.1 1 6.2 10.1 8.2 4.6 2.0 2 4.9 7.8 6.4 3.6 3 2.6 4.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Újpest II down, III. Kerületi TUE across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 811 NB III - Southeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.2% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Újpest II at home: 3.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). III. Kerületi TUE away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Újpest II, 1.67 for III. Kerületi TUE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UJP 0–2 III · III 4–5 UJP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 30 Aug

ÚJPEST II

WWLWDL2–1 · 6–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

III. KERÜLETI TUE

LWWWLD0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	12	+33	36
2	ESMTK	12	+21	27
3	III. Kerületi TUE	11	+11	25
4	Vasas II	12	+11	18
5	Újpest II	11	+10	18
6	Szeged-Csanád II	11	+5	17
7	Csepel	11	+4	14
8	Bekescsaba 1912	12	+1	14
9	Monori Se	12	−1	14
10	Szolnoki MAV FC	12	−2	14
11	Dabas	11	−11	14
12	Honvéd II	11	0	11
13	Sándorfalva	11	−20	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	12	−12	8
15	Szegedi VSE	12	−21	6
16	BKV Előre	11	−29	5