Szolnoki MAV FC v ESMTK prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Szolnoki MAV FC 2–3 ESMTK ESMTK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ESMTK win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.143

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ESMTK are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Szolnoki MAV FC 15%, draw 16%, ESMTK 69%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Szolnoki MAV FC v ESMTKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Szolnoki MAV FC win15%

Draw16%

ESMTK win69%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

VenueTiszaligeti Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Szolnoki MAV FC

ESMTK

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southeast

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	ESMTK	11	+20	24
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	11	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esmtk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make ESMTK a 69% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Szolnoki MAV FC v ESMTK~~1.19 – 2.78

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 24~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ESMTK win

Published at 68%, 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Szolnoki MAV FC win	15%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
ESMTK win	69%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Szolnoki MAV FC or draw	31%	–	–
Szolnoki MAV FC clean sheet	7%	–	–
ESMTK clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 5.6 7.3 6.5 4.5 2.61 2.6 6.5 8.4 7.4 5.1 2.92 3.9 4.9 4.4 3.0 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Szolnoki MAV FC down, ESMTK across0–5 goals a side shown (92.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 807 NB III - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Szolnoki MAV FC at home: 2.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). ESMTK away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Szolnoki MAV FC, 2.78 for ESMTK. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SZO 0–3 ESM · SZO 2–1 ESM · ESM 2–0 SZO · SZO 3–0 ESM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

SZOLNOKI MAV FC

DWDLLD3–3 · 1–0 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 1–1

ESMTK

DWDWWW3–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	11	+30	33
2	III. Kerületi TUE	11	+11	25
3	ESMTK	11	+20	24
4	Újpest II	11	+10	18
5	Vasas II	11	+11	17
6	Szeged-Csanád II	11	+5	17
7	Csepel	11	+4	14
8	Monori Se	11	+2	14
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	11	−1	14
10	Dabas	11	−11	14
11	Bekescsaba 1912	11	+1	13
12	Honvéd II	11	0	11
13	Sándorfalva	11	−20	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	11	−11	8
15	BKV Előre	11	−29	5
16	Szegedi VSE	11	−22	3