Szegedi VSE v Hódmezővásárhely prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Szegedi VSE 2–1 Hódmezővásárhely HÓDMEZŐVÁSÁRHELY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hódmezővásárhely win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hódmezővásárhely win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hódmezővásárhely 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 37–22–41
1′KICK-OFF Szegedi VSE v Hódmezővásárhely
18′A goal for Szegedi VSE on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–20–19
18′We said Hódmezővásárhely at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Szegedi VSE 1–0 Hódmezővásárhely
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Hódmezővásárhely win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Szegedi VSE win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Hódmezővásárhely win 19%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 62–21–16
38′We said Hódmezővásárhely at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
41′Szegedi VSE score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
41′We said Hódmezővásárhely at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Szegedi VSE 2–0 Hódmezővásárhely
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hódmezővásárhely win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME Szegedi VSE 2–0 Hódmezővásárhely
46′SECOND HALF Szegedi VSE 2–0 Hódmezővásárhely
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hódmezővásárhely win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
66′Hódmezővásárhely find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–21–6
66′We said Hódmezővásárhely at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 73–21–6
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Szegedi VSE 2–1 Hódmezővásárhely
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hódmezővásárhely win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Hódmezővásárhely win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Szegedi VSE 2–1 Hódmezővásárhely
FTSzegedi VSE 2–1 Hódmezővásárhely · Hódmezővásárhely win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hódmezővásárhely just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Szegedi VSE 37%, draw 22%, Hódmezővásárhely 41%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Szegedi VSE v HódmezővásárhelyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Szegedi VSE win37%

Draw22%

Hódmezővásárhely win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Szegedi VSE

Hódmezővásárhely

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Hódmezővásárhely	11	−11	8
16	Szegedi VSE	11	−22	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hódmezővásárhely winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Hódmezővásárhely a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Szegedi VSE v Hódmezővásárhely~~1.73 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Szegedi VSE win	37%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Hódmezővásárhely win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Szegedi VSE or draw	59%	–	–
Szegedi VSE clean sheet	17%	–	–
Hódmezővásárhely clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 5.4 4.8 2.9 1 5.1 9.0 7.9 4.8 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.7 4.1 3 2.5 4.4 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Szegedi VSE down, Hódmezővásárhely across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 807 NB III - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Szegedi VSE at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hódmezővásárhely away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Szegedi VSE, 1.83 for Hódmezővásárhely. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SZE 1–1 HOD · HOD 1–2 SZE · HOD 1–0 SZE · SZE 0–5 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

SZEGEDI VSE

DLLLLD3–3 · 1–6 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

HÓDMEZŐVÁSÁRHELY

DWLLDD2–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	11	+30	33
2	III. Kerületi TUE	11	+11	25
3	ESMTK	11	+20	24
4	Újpest II	11	+10	18
5	Vasas II	11	+11	17
6	Szeged-Csanád II	11	+5	17
7	Csepel	11	+4	14
8	Monori Se	11	+2	14
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	11	−1	14
10	Dabas	11	−11	14
11	Bekescsaba 1912	11	+1	13
12	Honvéd II	11	0	11
13	Sándorfalva	11	−20	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	11	−11	8
15	BKV Előre	11	−29	5
16	Szegedi VSE	11	−22	3