Honvéd II v Csepel

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Honvéd II win at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Honvéd II 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–35
3. 1′KICK-OFF Honvéd II v Csepel
4. 17′Honvéd II are down to ten from 17′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 39–28–34
5. 17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Honvéd II
6. 24′Honvéd II find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
7. 24′We said Honvéd II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
8. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Honvéd II 1–0 Csepel
9. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Honvéd II win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
10. 25′A goal for Csepel on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–30–33
11. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Honvéd II 1–1 Csepel
12. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Honvéd II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
13. 45′HALF-TIME Honvéd II 1–1 Csepel
14. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Honvéd II win 33%)
15. 46′SECOND HALF Honvéd II 1–1 Csepel
16. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 32–39–29
17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Honvéd II win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
18. 56′Csepel score on 55′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–70
19. 56′We said Honvéd II at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–22–70
20. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Honvéd II 1–2 Csepel
21. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Honvéd II win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
22. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Csepel win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
23. 57′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–22–71
24. 67′We said Honvéd II at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Honvéd II win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
26. 88′Csepel find the net on 87′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
27. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Honvéd II 1–3 Csepel
28. 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
29. FTFULL TIME Honvéd II 1–3 Csepel
30. FTHonvéd II 1–3 Csepel · Honvéd II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.