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Gyulai Termál v Újpest II

Gyulai Termál

2–1Full time

Újpest II

NB III - Southeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Gyulai Termál 2–1 Újpest II GYULAI TERMÁL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gyulai Termál win~~74%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.100

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyulai Termál win at 74%.
1′KICK-OFF Gyulai Termál v Újpest II
2′Little has changed for our model: Gyulai Termál 74% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–14–11
43′We said Gyulai Termál at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 0–0 · 61–25–13
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gyulai Termál win: 74% at kick-off, 61% now
45′Gyulai Termál are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 60–26–13
45′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Gyulai Termál
45′HALF-TIME Gyulai Termál 0–0 Újpest II
46′SECOND HALF Gyulai Termál 0–0 Újpest II
52′We said Gyulai Termál at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–30–14
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gyulai Termál 1–0 Újpest II
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Újpest II
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Gyulai Termál 1–1 Újpest II
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gyulai Termál 2–1 Újpest II
FTFULL TIME Gyulai Termál 2–1 Újpest II
FTGyulai Termál 2–1 Újpest II · Gyulai Termál win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gyulai Termál win74%

Draw14%

Újpest II win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gyulai termál winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

74% The market66%

Us74%

~~Market~~66%

We make Gyulai Termál a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gyulai termál win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyulai Termál win	74%	66%	+8
Draw	14%	19%	−5
Újpest II win	12%	15%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	76%	72%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	89%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Gyulai Termál or draw	88%	85%	+3
Gyulai Termál clean sheet	35%	–	–
Újpest II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.0 2.1 1 5.5 5.8 3.2 2 7.7 8.1 4.4 3 7.3 7.7 4.2 4 5.4 5.6 3.1 5 3.3 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyulai Termál down, Újpest II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 799 NB III - Southeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gyulai Termál at home: 3.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Újpest II away: 1.75 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.96 goals for Gyulai Termál, 1.09 for Újpest II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2023

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast

GYULAI TERMÁL

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 4–3

ÚJPEST II

DWWLWD2–2 · 2–1 · 6–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	10	+29	30
2	III. Kerületi TUE	10	+11	24
3	ESMTK	10	+17	21
4	Újpest II	10	+11	18
5	Vasas II	10	+12	17
6	Szeged-Csanád II	10	+5	16
7	Monori Se	10	+4	14
8	Csepel	10	+4	13
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	10	−1	13
10	Dabas	10	−11	13
11	Honvéd II	10	+3	11
12	Bekescsaba 1912	10	−1	10
13	Hódmezővásárhely	10	−11	7
14	Sándorfalva	10	−21	7
15	BKV Előre	10	−29	4
16	Szegedi VSE	10	−22	2