ESMTK v Újpest II prediction · NB III - Southeast

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ESMTKDrawÚjpest II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ESMTK 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ESMTK are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ESMTK 66%, draw 18%, Újpest II 16%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on ESMTK v Újpest IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

ESMTK win66%

Draw18%

Újpest II win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ESMTK

Újpest II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Southeast

Last match: 18 Oct · NB III - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	ESMTK	12	+21	27
7	Újpest II	12	+10	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esmtk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make ESMTK a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ESMTK v Újpest II~~2.48 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 19~~2 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ESMTK win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Újpest II win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
ESMTK or draw	84%	–	–
ESMTK clean sheet	34%	–	–
Újpest II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 3.2 1 7.0 7.7 4.2 2 8.4 9.0 5.0 3 6.9 7.3 4.1 4 4.3 4.6 2.5 5 2.2 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+ESMTK down, Újpest II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 815 NB III - Southeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ESMTK at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Újpest II away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for ESMTK, 1.11 for Újpest II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESM 1–0 UJP · UJP 0–2 ESM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast this season · since 6 Sept

ESMTK

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–2

ÚJPEST II

WLWDLD6–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	13	+34	39
2	ESMTK	12	+21	27
3	III. Kerületi TUE	13	+10	26
4	Szeged-Csanád II	13	+8	23
5	Csepel	13	+7	20
6	Vasas II	13	+11	19
7	Újpest II	12	+10	19
8	Monori Se	13	−1	15
9	Bekescsaba 1912	13	0	14
10	Szolnoki MAV FC	13	−3	14
11	Dabas	12	−12	14
12	Honvéd II	13	−2	12
13	Sándorfalva	12	−22	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	13	−12	9
15	BKV Előre	12	−28	8
16	Szegedi VSE	12	−21	6