ESMTK v Honvéd II prediction · NB III - Southeast

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

ESMTK 3–0 Honvéd II ESMTK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ESMTK win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ESMTK win at 68%.
1′KICK-OFF ESMTK v Honvéd II
3′Much as we predicted: ESMTK was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
4′Much as we predicted: ESMTK was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' ESMTK 1–0 Honvéd II
20′A goal for ESMTK on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
21′A goal for ESMTK on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' ESMTK 2–0 Honvéd II
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' ESMTK win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME ESMTK 2–0 Honvéd II
46′SECOND HALF ESMTK 2–0 Honvéd II
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' ESMTK 3–0 Honvéd II
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' ESMTK 4–0 Honvéd II
FTFULL TIME ESMTK 3–0 Honvéd II
FTESMTK 3–0 Honvéd II · ESMTK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

ESMTK win68%

Draw18%

Honvéd II win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ESMTK

Honvéd II

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	ESMTK	10	+17	21
12	Honvéd II	10	+3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esmtk winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

68% The market–

Us68%

We make ESMTK a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ESMTK win	68%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Honvéd II win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
ESMTK or draw	86%	–	–
ESMTK clean sheet	42%	–	–
Honvéd II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 4.6 3.9 1 9.9 8.5 3.8 2 10.9 9.3 4.1 3 8.2 7.0 3.1 4 4.7 4.0 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+ESMTK down, Honvéd II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 805 NB III - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.0% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ESMTK at home: 3.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Honvéd II away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for ESMTK, 0.88 for Honvéd II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESM 4–0 HON · HON 2–0 ESM · ESM 3–2 HON · HON 1–2 ESM

Form · last six in NB III - Southeast

ESMTK

WDWDWW3–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–1

HONVÉD II

WDLWLW8–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	11	+30	33
2	III. Kerületi TUE	11	+11	25
3	ESMTK	10	+17	21
4	Újpest II	11	+10	18
5	Vasas II	11	+11	17
6	Szeged-Csanád II	10	+5	16
7	Csepel	11	+4	14
8	Monori Se	11	+2	14
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	11	−1	14
10	Dabas	11	−11	14
11	Bekescsaba 1912	11	+1	13
12	Honvéd II	10	+3	11
13	Sándorfalva	11	−20	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	11	−11	8
15	BKV Előre	10	−29	4
16	Szegedi VSE	11	−22	3