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Tatabánya v Zalaegerszegi TE II

Tatabánya

3–0Full time

Zalaegerszegi TE II

NB III - Northwest · SAT 10 OCT · Grosics Gyula Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Tatabánya 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II TATABÁNYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tatabánya win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tatabánya win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tatabánya 72% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–15–12
1′KICK-OFF Tatabánya v Zalaegerszegi TE II
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Tatabánya 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
43′A goal for Tatabánya on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Tatabánya win: 72% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME Tatabánya 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
47′SECOND HALF Tatabánya 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
48′We said Tatabánya at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Tatabánya 2–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Tatabánya 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Zalaegerszegi TE II
88′Tatabánya find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Tatabánya win: 72% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Tatabánya 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II
FTTatabánya 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE II · Tatabánya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tatabánya win72%

Draw15%

Zalaegerszegi TE II win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Grosics Gyula Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatabánya winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Tatabánya a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tatabánya win	72%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Zalaegerszegi TE II win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Tatabánya or draw	87%	–	–
Tatabánya clean sheet	35%	–	–
Zalaegerszegi TE II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.2 2.8 1 6.6 6.3 3.5 2 8.3 8.5 4.5 3 7.4 7.6 4.0 4 5.1 5.2 2.8 5 3.0 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Tatabánya down, Zalaegerszegi TE II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 NB III - Northwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tatabánya at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zalaegerszegi TE II away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Tatabánya, 1.07 for Zalaegerszegi TE II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZAL 1–4 TAT · TAT 2–1 ZAL

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest

TATABÁNYA

WWDWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE II

LWWDLW0–1 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haladás VSE	10	+21	24
2	Dorogi FC	10	+21	23
3	Tatabánya	10	+17	23
4	Sárisápi Bányász	10	0	17
5	MTE 1904	10	+3	15
6	SC Sopron	10	+2	15
7	Bicskei	10	+1	15
8	Komárom	10	+1	15
9	Gyori ETO II	10	+3	14
10	Puskás II	10	0	13
11	Zalaegerszegi TE II	10	0	13
12	Pápai Perutz	10	−10	11
13	Veszprém	10	−7	10
14	Király SZE	10	−8	7
15	Balatonalmádi	10	−19	5
16	1908 SZAC	10	−25	2