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Tatabánya v Dorogi FC

Tatabánya
2–2Full time
Dorogi FC

NB III - Northwest · SAT 24 OCT · Grosics Gyula Stadion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46
Tatabánya 2–2 Dorogi FC TATABÁNYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tatabánya win50%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.931
The market’s Brier score0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tatabánya win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tatabánya 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tatabánya v Dorogi FC
  4. 19′Tatabánya score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–9
  5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Tatabánya 1–0 Dorogi FC
  6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 20′We said Tatabánya at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  9. 34′We said Tatabánya at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Tatabánya 1–0 Dorogi FC
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Tatabánya 1–0 Dorogi FC
  12. 48′Dorogi FC find the net on 48′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–38–24
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tatabánya 1–1 Dorogi FC
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
  15. 49′We said Tatabánya at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–39–23
  16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
  17. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tatabánya win 38%)
  18. 57′We said Tatabánya at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
  19. 59′A goal for Dorogi FC on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  20. 59′We said Tatabánya at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  21. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Tatabánya 1–2 Dorogi FC
  22. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, 9% now
  23. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Dorogi FC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 45%)
  24. 60′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–24–67
  25. 71′We said Tatabánya at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  26. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  27. 89′Tatabánya score on 89′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 6–89–4
  28. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tatabánya 2–2 Dorogi FC
  29. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Tatabánya win: 50% at kick-off, 6% now
  30. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Dorogi FC win 94%)
  31. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–91–4
  32. FTFULL TIME Tatabánya 2–2 Dorogi FC
  33. FTTatabánya 2–2 Dorogi FC · Tatabánya win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tatabánya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tatabánya 50%, draw 22%, Dorogi FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Tatabánya v Dorogi FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tatabánya win50%
Draw22%
Dorogi FC win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 13

VenueGrosics Gyula Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tatabánya

Dorogi FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Northwest

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dorogi FC12+2429
2Tatabánya12+2129

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tatabánya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
50% The market44%
Us50%
Market44%

We make Tatabánya a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tatabánya v Dorogi FC1.74 – 1.21
Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 29 v 292 v 1
The market · Tatabánya win44% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:57
Our probability · Tatabánya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tatabánya win50%44%+6
Draw22%26%−4
Dorogi FC win27%30%−3
Over 2.5 goals56%52%+4
Both teams to score56%56%0
Over 1.5 goals78%75%+3
Over 3.5 goals34%32%+2
Tatabánya or draw73%70%+3
Tatabánya clean sheet30%––
Dorogi FC clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 5.0 7.0 3.9 1 9.7 10.3 6.5 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tatabánya down, Dorogi FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsDOR 0–2 TAT · TAT 0–1 DOR · DOR 0–1 TAT · TAT 3–1 DOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 Sept

TATABÁNYA

DWWWWW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

DOROGI FC

WWWDWW2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dorogi FC12+2429
2Tatabánya12+2129
3Haladás VSE12+2126
4SC Sopron13+521
5MTE 190413+620
6Sárisápi Bányász12020
7Bicskei13+119
8Komárom12−118
9Puskás II12+317
10Zalaegerszegi TE II12−116
11Gyori ETO II12−114
12Veszprém12−513
13Király SZE13−813
14Pápai Perutz13−1511
15Balatonalmádi12−228
161908 SZAC13−282

The competition's standings before kick-off.