SC Sopron v Pápai Perutz prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

SC Sopron 3–1 Pápai Perutz SC SOPRON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Sopron win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.251

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.183

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Sopron win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: SC Sopron was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
1′KICK-OFF SC Sopron v Pápai Perutz
26′A goal for SC Sopron on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–7
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' SC Sopron 1–0 Pápai Perutz
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' SC Sopron win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
27′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–7
29′SC Sopron score on 29′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' SC Sopron 2–0 Pápai Perutz
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' SC Sopron win: 59% at kick-off, 93% now
30′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–2
41′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
43′Pápai Perutz find the net on 43′. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–15–5
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' SC Sopron 2–1 Pápai Perutz
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SC Sopron win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
44′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME SC Sopron 2–1 Pápai Perutz
46′SECOND HALF SC Sopron 2–1 Pápai Perutz
70′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
71′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 2–1 · 85–13–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' SC Sopron win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
83′A goal for SC Sopron on 83′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′We published SC Sopron at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' SC Sopron 3–1 Pápai Perutz
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' SC Sopron win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′A red card for Pápai Perutz on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Pápai Perutz
FTFULL TIME SC Sopron 3–1 Pápai Perutz
FTSC Sopron 3–1 Pápai Perutz · SC Sopron win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Sopron are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Sopron 59%, draw 20%, Pápai Perutz 21%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on SC Sopron v Pápai PerutzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SC Sopron win59%

Draw20%

Pápai Perutz win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Sopron

Pápai Perutz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	SC Sopron	12	+3	18
13	Pápai Perutz	12	−13	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc sopron winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make SC Sopron a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Sopron v Pápai Perutz~~2.12 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~6 v 13

~~The market · SC Sopron win~~65% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Sopron win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Sopron win	59%	65%	−6
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Pápai Perutz win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
SC Sopron or draw	79%	86%	−7
SC Sopron clean sheet	31%	–	–
Pápai Perutz clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.0 2.6 1 8.5 8.7 5.3 2.1 2 8.3 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 5.8 6.6 3.9 4 3.2 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Sopron down, Pápai Perutz across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,518 NB III - Northwest matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Sopron at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pápai Perutz away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for SC Sopron, 1.18 for Pápai Perutz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAP 1–0 SCS · SCS 3–2 PAP · SCS 0–1 PAP · PAP 1–0 SCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 Sept

SC SOPRON

LWDWWL1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–3

PÁPAI PERUTZ

LDLWLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dorogi FC	12	+24	29
2	Tatabánya	12	+21	29
3	Haladás VSE	12	+21	26
4	Sárisápi Bányász	12	0	20
5	MTE 1904	12	+6	19
6	SC Sopron	12	+3	18
7	Bicskei	12	+1	18
8	Komárom	12	−1	18
9	Puskás II	12	+3	17
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	12	−1	16
11	Gyori ETO II	12	−1	14
12	Veszprém	12	−5	13
13	Pápai Perutz	12	−13	11
14	Király SZE	12	−9	10
15	Balatonalmádi	12	−22	8
16	1908 SZAC	12	−27	2