Gyori ETO II v Dorogi FC prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Gyori ETO II 1–2 Dorogi FC DOROGI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dorogi FC win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dorogi FC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dorogi FC 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 26–23–51
9′Little has changed for our model: Dorogi FC 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
19′Gyori ETO II find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–24–24
24′We said Dorogi FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 53–24–23
28′Gyori ETO II find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–25–21
33′We said Dorogi FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 55–25–20
40′A goal for Dorogi FC on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–33–43
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Gyori ETO II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Dorogi FC win 23%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Dorogi FC win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gyori ETO II win 25%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
44′A goal for Dorogi FC on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–34–41
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Dorogi FC win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gyori ETO II win 25%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Gyori ETO II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Dorogi FC win 23%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Dorogi FC win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Gyori ETO II win 24%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dorogi FC win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Gyori ETO II 1–1 Dorogi FC
46′SECOND HALF Gyori ETO II 1–1 Dorogi FC
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Gyori ETO II 1–2 Dorogi FC
FTFULL TIME Gyori ETO II 1–2 Dorogi FC
FTGyori ETO II 1–2 Dorogi FC · Dorogi FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gyori ETO II win27%

Draw21%

Dorogi FC win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gyori ETO II

Dorogi FC

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dorogi FC	10	+21	23
9	Gyori ETO II	10	+3	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dorogi fc winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Dorogi FC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dorogi fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyori ETO II win	27%	25%	+2
Draw	21%	24%	−2
Dorogi FC win	51%	51%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Gyori ETO II or draw	49%	49%	0
Gyori ETO II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Dorogi FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 8.4 7.4 4.7 2.3 1 6.0 9.6 9.1 5.7 2.8 2 3.7 6.4 5.8 3.6 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyori ETO II down, Dorogi FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 NB III - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gyori ETO II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dorogi FC away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gyori ETO II, 1.89 for Dorogi FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DOR 1–1 GYO · GYO 2–0 DOR · GYO 2–0 DOR · DOR 2–4 GYO

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest

GYORI ETO II

WLDDWL2–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

DOROGI FC

WLWWWD1–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatabánya	11	+20	26
2	Haladás VSE	10	+21	24
3	Dorogi FC	10	+21	23
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	+1	20
5	SC Sopron	11	+5	18
6	Bicskei	11	+3	18
7	MTE 1904	10	+3	15
8	Komárom	11	−2	15
9	Gyori ETO II	10	+3	14
10	Puskás II	10	0	13
11	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	−3	13
12	Pápai Perutz	11	−12	11
13	Veszprém	10	−7	10
14	Király SZE	10	−8	7
15	Balatonalmádi	10	−19	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	−26	2