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Bicskei v Pápai Perutz

Bicskei

2–0Full time

Pápai Perutz

NB III - Northwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Bicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz BICSKEI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bicskei win~~69%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.140

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bicskei win at 69%.
2′KICK-OFF Bicskei v Pápai Perutz
4′Much as we predicted: Bicskei was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–16–15
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Bicskei 1–0 Pápai Perutz
44′Bicskei find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bicskei win: 69% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Bicskei 1–0 Pápai Perutz
46′SECOND HALF Bicskei 1–0 Pápai Perutz
50′A goal for Bicskei on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bicskei win: 69% at kick-off, 96% now
72′We published Bicskei at 69%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 28' Bicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz
89′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz
90′We published Bicskei at 69%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Bicskei win: 69% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Bicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz
FTBicskei 2–0 Pápai Perutz · Bicskei win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bicskei win69%

Draw15%

Pápai Perutz win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bicskei winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

69% The market55%

Us69%

~~Market~~55%

We make Bicskei a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bicskei win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bicskei win	69%	55%	+14
Draw	15%	22%	−8
Pápai Perutz win	16%	23%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	80%	68%	+12
Both teams to score	69%	66%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	49%	+13
Bicskei or draw	84%	77%	+7
Bicskei clean sheet	26%	–	–
Pápai Perutz clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.2 1 4.4 5.3 3.7 2 5.9 7.7 5.2 2.4 3 5.6 7.4 5.0 2.3 4 4.1 5.4 3.7 5 2.5 3.3 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Bicskei down, Pápai Perutz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 NB III - Northwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bicskei at home: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pápai Perutz away: 1.00 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.97 goals for Bicskei, 1.37 for Pápai Perutz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BIC 9–0 PAP · PAP 1–1 BIC

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest

BICSKEI

WWWWLL4–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 4–5 · 1–3

PÁPAI PERUTZ

WLLDLW1–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haladás VSE	10	+21	24
2	Dorogi FC	10	+21	23
3	Tatabánya	10	+17	23
4	Sárisápi Bányász	10	0	17
5	MTE 1904	10	+3	15
6	SC Sopron	10	+2	15
7	Bicskei	10	+1	15
8	Komárom	10	+1	15
9	Gyori ETO II	10	+3	14
10	Puskás II	10	0	13
11	Zalaegerszegi TE II	10	0	13
12	Pápai Perutz	10	−10	11
13	Veszprém	10	−7	10
14	Király SZE	10	−8	7
15	Balatonalmádi	10	−19	5
16	1908 SZAC	10	−25	2