Balatonalmádi v Komárom prediction · NB III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BalatonalmádiDrawKomárom

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Komárom 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Komárom are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Balatonalmádi 21%, draw 19%, Komárom 60%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Balatonalmádi v KomáromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Balatonalmádi win21%

Draw19%

Komárom win60%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Balatonalmádi

Komárom

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · NB III - Northwest

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Komárom	12	−1	18
15	Balatonalmádi	12	−22	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · komárom winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Komárom a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Balatonalmádi v Komárom~~1.22 – 2.23

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 18~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balatonalmádi win	21%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Komárom win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Balatonalmádi or draw	40%	–	–
Balatonalmádi clean sheet	12%	–	–
Komárom clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.1 7.7 7.9 5.8 3.3 1 4.5 8.2 9.2 6.7 3.8 2 2.5 5.2 5.6 4.1 2.3 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balatonalmádi down, Komárom across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,523 NB III - Northwest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.3% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Balatonalmádi at home: 0.00 scored, 2.75 conceded a game (last 4). Komárom away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Balatonalmádi, 2.23 for Komárom. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northwest this season · since 5 Sept

BALATONALMÁDI

WLDDLW2–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–0

KOMÁROM

LDWLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 5–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dorogi FC	12	+24	29
2	Tatabánya	12	+21	29
3	Haladás VSE	12	+21	26
4	SC Sopron	13	+5	21
5	Sárisápi Bányász	13	0	21
6	MTE 1904	13	+6	20
7	Bicskei	13	+1	19
8	Komárom	12	−1	18
9	Puskás II	12	+3	17
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	13	−1	17
11	Gyori ETO II	12	−1	14
12	Veszprém	12	−5	13
13	Király SZE	13	−8	13
14	Pápai Perutz	13	−15	11
15	Balatonalmádi	12	−22	8
16	1908 SZAC	13	−28	2