Tiszaújváros v Diósgyőr II prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Tiszaújváros 0–4 Diósgyőr II TISZAÚJVÁROS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tiszaújváros win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tiszaújváros win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tiszaújváros was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–33
1′KICK-OFF Tiszaújváros v Diósgyőr II
8′A goal for Diósgyőr II on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–21–57
8′We said Tiszaújváros at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–21–57
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Tiszaújváros 0–1 Diósgyőr II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Tiszaújváros win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Diósgyőr II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Tiszaújváros win 22%)
19′We said Tiszaújváros at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–61
39′We said Tiszaújváros at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Tiszaújváros win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Tiszaújváros 0–1 Diósgyőr II
46′SECOND HALF Tiszaújváros 0–1 Diósgyőr II
55′We said Tiszaújváros at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
57′Diósgyőr II score on 57′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tiszaújváros 0–2 Diósgyőr II
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Tiszaújváros win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
58′We said Tiszaújváros at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
72′Diósgyőr II find the net on 72′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Tiszaújváros 0–3 Diósgyőr II
86′A goal for Diósgyőr II on 86′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Tiszaújváros 0–4 Diósgyőr II
87′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Tiszaújváros 0–4 Diósgyőr II
FTTiszaújváros 0–4 Diósgyőr II · Tiszaújváros win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tiszaújváros are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tiszaújváros 43%, draw 23%, Diósgyőr II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Tiszaújváros v Diósgyőr IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tiszaújváros win43%

Draw23%

Diósgyőr II win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tiszaújváros

Diósgyőr II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Diósgyőr II	11	+2	16
10	Tiszaújváros	11	+1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tiszaújváros winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Tiszaújváros a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tiszaújváros v Diósgyőr II~~1.74 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tiszaújváros win

Published at 41%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tiszaújváros win	43%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Diósgyőr II win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Tiszaújváros or draw	66%	–	–
Tiszaújváros clean sheet	23%	–	–
Diósgyőr II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 5.9 4.5 2.3 1 6.9 10.1 7.4 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.3 3.2 3 3.5 5.0 3.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tiszaújváros down, Diósgyőr II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,568 NB III - Northeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tiszaújváros at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Diósgyőr II away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Tiszaújváros, 1.50 for Diósgyőr II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIO 1–3 TIS · TIS 2–1 DIO · TIS 1–0 DIO · DIO 0–1 TIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug

TISZAÚJVÁROS

WLLWDW3–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

DIÓSGYŐR II

DWWWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	11	+26	27
2	Cigand SE	11	+16	26
3	DEAC	11	+15	23
4	Kisvárda II	11	+7	20
5	Debrecen II	11	+8	19
6	Gödöllő	11	+5	19
7	Eger	11	−9	17
8	Diósgyőr II	11	+2	16
9	Mátészalka	11	+2	16
10	Tiszaújváros	11	+1	16
11	Füzesabony	11	−1	16
12	Hajdúnánás	11	−12	10
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	11	−11	9
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	11	−12	9
15	Tarpa	11	−17	6
16	Nyiregyhaza II	11	−20	3