Tarpa v Gödöllő prediction · NB III - Northeast

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Tarpa 2–1 Gödöllő GÖDÖLLŐ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gödöllő win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gödöllő are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tarpa 31%, draw 27%, Gödöllő 42%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Tarpa v GödöllőBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tarpa win31%

Draw27%

Gödöllő win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tarpa

Gödöllő

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Northeast

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gödöllő	11	+5	19
15	Tarpa	11	−17	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gödöllő winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Gödöllő a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tarpa v Gödöllő~~1.12 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 19~~15 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gödöllő win

Published at 41%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tarpa win	31%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gödöllő win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Tarpa or draw	58%	–	–
Tarpa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gödöllő clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 11.3 7.8 3.6 1 9.2 12.4 8.3 3.9 2 5.3 6.9 4.7 2.1 3 2.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tarpa down, Gödöllő across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,568 NB III - Northeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tarpa at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gödöllő away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Tarpa, 1.37 for Gödöllő. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GOD 1–1 TAR · TAR 2–2 GOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug

TARPA

LLLWLL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–3

GÖDÖLLŐ

WWLLDW2–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	11	+26	27
2	Cigand SE	11	+16	26
3	DEAC	11	+15	23
4	Kisvárda II	11	+7	20
5	Debrecen II	11	+8	19
6	Gödöllő	11	+5	19
7	Eger	11	−9	17
8	Diósgyőr II	11	+2	16
9	Mátészalka	11	+2	16
10	Tiszaújváros	11	+1	16
11	Füzesabony	11	−1	16
12	Hajdúnánás	11	−12	10
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	11	−11	9
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	11	−12	9
15	Tarpa	11	−17	6
16	Nyiregyhaza II	11	−20	3