Mátészalka v Tarpa prediction · NB III - Northeast

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Mátészalka 4–0 Tarpa MÁTÉSZALKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mátészalka win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mátészalka win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mátészalka was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Mátészalka v Tarpa
14′Mátészalka find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Mátészalka 1–0 Tarpa
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Mátészalka win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
15′We published Mátészalka at 45%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
23′A goal for Mátészalka on 22′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
23′We published Mátészalka at 45%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Mátészalka 2–0 Tarpa
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Mátészalka win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
36′Mátészalka score on 36′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
36′We published Mátészalka at 45%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mátészalka 3–0 Tarpa
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Mátészalka win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
37′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Mátészalka 3–0 Tarpa
46′SECOND HALF Mátészalka 3–0 Tarpa
56′We published Mátészalka at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′Tarpa find the net on 72′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mátészalka 3–1 Tarpa
77′A goal for Mátészalka on 76′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Mátészalka 4–1 Tarpa
78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' Tarpa
FTFULL TIME Mátészalka 4–0 Tarpa
FTMátészalka 4–0 Tarpa · Mátészalka win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mátészalka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mátészalka 45%, draw 28%, Tarpa 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Mátészalka v TarpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mátészalka win45%

Draw28%

Tarpa win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mátészalka

Tarpa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB III - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mátészalka	12	+2	17
15	Tarpa	12	−16	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mátészalka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Mátészalka a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mátészalka v Tarpa~~1.37 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 9~~8 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mátészalka win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Tarpa win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Mátészalka or draw	72%	–	–
Mátészalka clean sheet	37%	–	–
Tarpa clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.9 9.3 4.8 1 12.5 12.6 6.3 2.2 2 8.6 8.4 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mátészalka down, Tarpa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 NB III - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Mátészalka at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tarpa away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Mátészalka, 1.01 for Tarpa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

MÁTÉSZALKA

DWWDLD1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

TARPA

LLWLLW0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	12	+28	30
2	Cigand SE	12	+22	29
3	DEAC	12	+17	26
4	Debrecen II	12	+9	22
5	Kisvárda II	12	+7	21
6	Diósgyőr II	12	+6	19
7	Gödöllő	12	+4	19
8	Mátészalka	12	+2	17
9	Eger	12	−11	17
10	Tiszaújváros	12	−3	16
11	Füzesabony	12	−3	16
12	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	−12	10
13	Hajdúnánás	12	−18	10
14	Salgótarjáni BTC	12	−12	9
15	Tarpa	12	−16	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	12	−20	4