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Mátészalka v Cigand SE

Mátészalka

0–1Full time

Cigand SE

NB III - Northeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Mátészalka 0–1 Cigand SE CIGAND SE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cigand SE win~~55%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cigand SE win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cigand SE was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 22–23–55
1′KICK-OFF Mátészalka v Cigand SE
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Cigand SE win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Mátészalka 0–0 Cigand SE
47′SECOND HALF Mátészalka 0–0 Cigand SE
50′We said Cigand SE at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 20–39–41
68′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Mátészalka
70′68′ and it is 0–0: Mátészalka have scored. 0–0 · 15–57–28
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Cigand SE win: 55% at kick-off, 28% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Cigand SE win 28%)
90′We said Cigand SE at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cigand SE win: 55% at kick-off, 0% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Mátészalka 0–1 Cigand SE
FTFULL TIME Mátészalka 0–1 Cigand SE
FTMátészalka 0–1 Cigand SE · Cigand SE win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mátészalka win23%

Draw22%

Cigand SE win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cigand se winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

55% The market58%

Us55%

~~Market~~58%

We make Cigand SE a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cigand se win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mátészalka win	23%	20%	+2
Draw	22%	22%	+1
Cigand SE win	55%	58%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Mátészalka or draw	45%	42%	+3
Mátészalka clean sheet	16%	–	–
Cigand SE clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.6 9.6 8.8 5.6 2.7 1 5.8 10.4 9.3 5.8 2.8 2 3.2 5.7 5.1 3.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mátészalka down, Cigand SE across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,560 NB III - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mátészalka at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cigand SE away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Mátészalka, 1.88 for Cigand SE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CIG 2–0 MAT · MAT 0–3 CIG

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast

MÁTÉSZALKA

DLDWWD2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

CIGAND SE

WWWWDD2–0 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	10	+24	24
2	Cigand SE	10	+15	23
3	DEAC	10	+12	20
4	Kisvárda II	10	+4	17
5	Debrecen II	10	+4	16
6	Diósgyőr II	10	+4	16
7	Mátészalka	10	+3	16
8	Gödöllő	10	+2	16
9	Eger	10	−9	16
10	Füzesabony	10	−1	15
11	Tiszaújváros	10	−1	13
12	Hajdúnánás	10	−10	10
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	10	−8	9
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	10	−9	9
15	Tarpa	10	−14	6
16	Nyiregyhaza II	10	−16	3