Diósgyőr II v Ózd Sajóvölgye prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Diósgyőr II 1–3 Ózd Sajóvölgye ÓZD SAJÓVÖLGYE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ózd Sajóvölgye win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ózd Sajóvölgye win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ózd Sajóvölgye 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–21–42
9′7′ and it is 0–1: Ózd Sajóvölgye have scored. 0–1 · 19–18–63
14′We said Ózd Sajóvölgye at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 0–1 · 18–18–64
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Diósgyőr II 1–1 Ózd Sajóvölgye
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
20′Diósgyőr II find the net on 18′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–24–40
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
25′Little has changed for our model: Ózd Sajóvölgye 42% before kick-off, 40% now. 1–1 · 35–25–40
29′Diósgyőr II find the net on 18′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–26–39
41′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 33–29–37
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Diósgyőr II 1–2 Ózd Sajóvölgye
44′A goal for Ózd Sajóvölgye on 41′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–21–67
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ózd Sajóvölgye win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Diósgyőr II 1–2 Ózd Sajóvölgye
46′SECOND HALF Diósgyőr II 1–2 Ózd Sajóvölgye
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Diósgyőr II 1–3 Ózd Sajóvölgye
FTFULL TIME Diósgyőr II 1–3 Ózd Sajóvölgye
FTDiósgyőr II 1–3 Ózd Sajóvölgye · Ózd Sajóvölgye win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Diósgyőr II win37%

Draw21%

Ózd Sajóvölgye win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Diósgyőr II

Ózd Sajóvölgye

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ózd Sajóvölgye	10	+24	24
8	Diósgyőr II	10	+4	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ózd sajóvölgye winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Ózd Sajóvölgye a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diósgyőr II win	37%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Ózd Sajóvölgye win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Diósgyőr II or draw	58%	–	–
Diósgyőr II clean sheet	14%	–	–
Ózd Sajóvölgye clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.7 1 3.9 7.6 7.4 5.0 2.6 2 3.7 7.0 6.9 4.6 2.4 3 2.3 4.5 4.4 3.0 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Diósgyőr II down, Ózd Sajóvölgye across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 NB III - Northeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 7.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Diósgyőr II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ózd Sajóvölgye away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Diósgyőr II, 2.05 for Ózd Sajóvölgye. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DIO 5–0 OZD · OZD 3–6 DIO

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast

DIÓSGYŐR II

DDWWWL2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 1–2

ÓZD SAJÓVÖLGYE

WWWWLW5–0 · 5–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 9–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cigand SE	11	+16	26
2	Ózd Sajóvölgye	10	+24	24
3	DEAC	11	+15	23
4	Gödöllő	11	+5	19
5	Kisvárda II	10	+4	17
6	Eger	11	−9	17
7	Debrecen II	10	+4	16
8	Diósgyőr II	10	+4	16
9	Mátészalka	11	+2	16
10	Füzesabony	11	−1	16
11	Tiszaújváros	10	−1	13
12	Hajdúnánás	10	−10	10
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	11	−11	9
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	11	−12	9
15	Tarpa	10	−14	6
16	Nyiregyhaza II	10	−16	3