Debrecen II v Salgótarjáni BTC prediction · NB III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Debrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC DEBRECEN II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Debrecen II win~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.104

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Debrecen II win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Debrecen II was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–15–11
1′KICK-OFF Debrecen II v Salgótarjáni BTC
29′Debrecen II find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–3
29′We published Debrecen II at 74%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Debrecen II 1–0 Salgótarjáni BTC
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Debrecen II win: 74% at kick-off, 87% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–9–3
34′A goal for Debrecen II on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
34′We published Debrecen II at 74%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Debrecen II 2–0 Salgótarjáni BTC
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Debrecen II win: 74% at kick-off, 97% now
39′Salgótarjáni BTC score on 38′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–10–3
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Debrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Debrecen II win: 74% at kick-off, 87% now
45′HALF-TIME Debrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC
46′SECOND HALF Debrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC
73′We published Debrecen II at 74%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Debrecen II win: 74% at kick-off, 94% now
FTFULL TIME Debrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC
FTDebrecen II 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC · Debrecen II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Debrecen II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Debrecen II 74%, draw 15%, Salgótarjáni BTC 11%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Debrecen II v Salgótarjáni BTCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Debrecen II win74%

Draw15%

Salgótarjáni BTC win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Debrecen II

Salgótarjáni BTC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · NB III - Northeast

Last match: 10 Oct · NB III - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Debrecen II	11	+8	19
14	Salgótarjáni BTC	11	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · debrecen ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Debrecen II a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Debrecen II v Salgótarjáni BTC~~2.77 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 9~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Debrecen II win	74%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Salgótarjáni BTC win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Debrecen II or draw	89%	–	–
Debrecen II clean sheet	39%	–	–
Salgótarjáni BTC clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.1%

0123450 2.8 2.5 1 7.0 6.6 3.2 2 9.1 8.5 4.1 3 8.2 7.5 3.6 4 5.7 5.2 2.5 5 3.3 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Debrecen II down, Salgótarjáni BTC across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,574 NB III - Northeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB III - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Debrecen II at home: 3.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Salgótarjáni BTC away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Debrecen II, 0.96 for Salgótarjáni BTC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DEB 2–0 SAL · SAL 1–0 DEB · DEB 2–3 SAL · SAL 1–1 DEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB III - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug

DEBRECEN II

LWLWWW2–5 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

SALGÓTARJÁNI BTC

LLWLWL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	12	+28	30
2	Cigand SE	12	+22	29
3	DEAC	12	+17	26
4	Kisvárda II	11	+7	20
5	Debrecen II	11	+8	19
6	Diósgyőr II	12	+6	19
7	Gödöllő	12	+4	19
8	Mátészalka	12	+2	17
9	Eger	12	−11	17
10	Tiszaújváros	12	−3	16
11	Füzesabony	12	−3	16
12	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	−12	10
13	Hajdúnánás	12	−18	10
14	Salgótarjáni BTC	11	−11	9
15	Tarpa	12	−16	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	11	−20	3