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Tiszakecske FC v Ajka

Tiszakecske FC

4–3Full time

Ajka

NB II · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Tiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka TISZAKECSKE FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tiszakecske FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.436

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tiszakecske FC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tiszakecske FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Tiszakecske FC v Ajka
11′⚽ GOAL · 9' Tiszakecske FC 1–0 Ajka
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Tiszakecske FC 2–0 Ajka
22′A goal for Tiszakecske FC on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Ajka
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Tiszakecske FC 3–0 Ajka
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Tiszakecske FC 3–0 Ajka
32′⚽ GOAL · 30' Tiszakecske FC 3–0 Ajka
39′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Ajka · On: J. Szarka · Off: E. Nemeth
42′30′ and it is 3–0: Z. Tar on the scoresheet for Tiszakecske FC. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Tiszakecske FC 3–1 Ajka
45′HALF-TIME Tiszakecske FC 3–1 Ajka
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
46′SECOND HALF Tiszakecske FC 3–1 Ajka
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Tiszakecske FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Tiszakecske FC
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Tiszakecske FC 3–2 Ajka
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Tiszakecske FC 4–2 Ajka
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ajka
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka
83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ajka
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ajka
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Tiszakecske FC
FTFULL TIME Tiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka
FTTiszakecske FC 4–3 Ajka · Tiszakecske FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tiszakecske FC win46%

Draw27%

Ajka win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tiszakecske FC

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Esery

4 Z. Eger

6 P. Milicz

7 Myke

8 Lucas

13 K. Polgar

17 A. Szeker

25 N. Baranyai

33 J. Varga

38 B. Sos

77 B. Pataki

Coach · Csaba Pinter

Substitutes

31 · A. Kiss

5 · M. Heil

9 · T. Takacs

10 · E. Horvath

11 · D. Wirth

24 · E. Kocs-Washburn

26 · B. Terbe

47 · N. Usai

88 · D. Balla

Ajka

Formation not confirmed

25 B. Simon

5 Z. Kenderes

6 E. Nemeth

7 B. Szabo

10 D. Artner

15 N. Csorba

29 B. S. Bacsa

30 L. Doncsecz

34 Z. Tar

37 B. Bocskay

71 D. Csoka

Coach · Balint Gaal

Substitutes

44 · M. Gyurjan

8 · B. Mohos

11 · A. Kopacsi

17 · J. Szarka

19 · Z. Csizmadia

49 · A. Garamszegi Geczy

77 · M. Kelemen

80 · M. Papp

95 · F. Pinter

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tiszakecske FC

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Esery

4 Z. Eger

6 P. Milicz

7 Myke

8 Lucas

13 K. Polgar

17 A. Szeker

25 N. Baranyai

33 J. Varga

38 B. Sos

77 B. Pataki

Coach · Csaba Pinter

Substitutes

31 · A. Kiss

5 · M. Heil

9 · T. Takacs

10 · E. Horvath

11 · D. Wirth

24 · E. Kocs-Washburn

26 · B. Terbe

47 · N. Usai

88 · D. Balla

Ajka

Formation not confirmed

25 B. Simon

5 Z. Kenderes

6 E. Nemeth

7 B. Szabo

10 D. Artner

15 N. Csorba

29 B. S. Bacsa

30 L. Doncsecz

34 Z. Tar

37 B. Bocskay

71 D. Csoka

Coach · Balint Gaal

Substitutes

44 · M. Gyurjan

8 · B. Mohos

11 · A. Kopacsi

17 · J. Szarka

19 · Z. Csizmadia

49 · A. Garamszegi Geczy

77 · M. Kelemen

80 · M. Papp

95 · F. Pinter

Our number · tiszakecske fc winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Tiszakecske FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tiszakecske fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tiszakecske FC win	46%	46%	0
Draw	27%	27%	0
Ajka win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−11
Tiszakecske FC or draw	73%	73%	0
Tiszakecske FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ajka clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 9.9 4.6 1 13.6 12.4 6.1 2 8.9 8.5 4.1 3 4.1 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tiszakecske FC down, Ajka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,613 NB II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.62 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tiszakecske FC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ajka away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Tiszakecske FC, 0.96 for Ajka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AJK 1–4 TIS · TIS 2–1 AJK · TIS 2–1 AJK · AJK 1–0 TIS

Form · last six in NB II

TISZAKECSKE FC

WDWWWD1–0 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–3

AJKA

DDWWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	+16	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	8	+7	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	+7	16
4	Ajka	7	+3	14
5	Kazincbarcikai	8	+2	13
6	Gyirmot SE	8	−1	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	+3	12
8	Karcag SE	8	+2	11
9	Szentlőrinc SE	7	−1	10
10	Fehérvár FC	8	0	9
11	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	−3	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	−7	7
13	Szeged 2011	7	−2	6
14	BVSC	7	−5	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	−10	4
16	Csakvar	8	−11	4