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Model 1.2

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Szentlőrinc SE v Gyirmot SE

Szentlőrinc SE
1–2Full time
Gyirmot SE

NB II · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51
Szentlőrinc SE 1–2 Gyirmot SE SZENTLŐRINC SE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Szentlőrinc SE win42%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.674
The market’s Brier score0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Szentlőrinc SE win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Szentlőrinc SE v Gyirmot SE
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Szentlőrinc SE was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–34
  4. 23′Szentlőrinc SE find the net on 23′. 0–0 · 39–30–32
  5. 23′We published Szentlőrinc SE at 42%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Szentlőrinc SE 1–0 Gyirmot SE
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Szentlőrinc SE win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  9. 30′Gyirmot SE find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–32–31
  10. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Szentlőrinc SE 1–1 Gyirmot SE
  11. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Szentlőrinc SE
  12. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Szentlőrinc SE win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 33′Gyirmot SE level it on 29′ through C. Novak. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–33–30
  14. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Szentlőrinc SE
  15. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Gyirmot SE
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Szentlőrinc SE 1–1 Gyirmot SE
  17. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Szentlőrinc SE win 33%)
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Szentlőrinc SE 1–1 Gyirmot SE
  19. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Szentlőrinc SE win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gyirmot SE · On: A. Hajdu · Off: S. Medgyes
  21. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Szentlőrinc SE · On: R. Palfalvi · Off: R. Gruber
  22. 53′A goal for Gyirmot SE on 52′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–23–69
  23. 53′We said Szentlőrinc SE at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–23–69
  24. 53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–23–69
  25. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Szentlőrinc SE 1–2 Gyirmot SE
  26. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Szentlőrinc SE win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
  27. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Gyirmot SE win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
  28. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Szentlőrinc SE · On: B. Rideg · Off: E. Czerna
  29. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gyirmot SE · On: B. Lanyi · Off: M. Madarasz
  30. 67′We said Szentlőrinc SE at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  31. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Szentlőrinc SE win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  32. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Szentlőrinc SE · On: M. Jung · Off: A. Rac
  33. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Szentlőrinc SE · On: B. Kun · Off: M. Szolgai
  34. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gyirmot SE · On: Z. Vasvari · Off: C. Novak
  35. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gyirmot SE · On: M. Szabo · Off: I. Tollar
  36. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Gyirmot SE
  37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gyirmot SE · On: T. Nemeth · Off: A. Ivan
  38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Szentlőrinc SE · On: Z. Csornyei · Off: P. Kiss-Szeman
  39. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Szentlőrinc SE
  40. FTFULL TIME Szentlőrinc SE 1–2 Gyirmot SE
  41. FTSzentlőrinc SE 1–2 Gyirmot SE · Szentlőrinc SE win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Szentlőrinc SE are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Szentlőrinc SE 42%, draw 25%, Gyirmot SE 34%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Szentlőrinc SE v Gyirmot SEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Szentlőrinc SE win42%
Draw25%
Gyirmot SE win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Szentlőrinc SE

Gyirmot SE

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Szentlőrinc SE

Gyirmot SE

5Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · NB II

Last match: 10 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Gyirmot SE9016
10Szentlőrinc SE9−411

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Szentlőrinc SE

Formation not confirmed

90 R. Kostyak

8 A. Rac

21 P. Kiss-Szeman

27 L. Milovanovic

42 P. Poor

14 M. Szolgai

67 E. Czerna

33 O. Dinnyes

77 R. Gruber

7 B. Olah

40 A. Samson

Coach · Mark Nikhazi

Substitutes

46 · S. Szilard

74 · M. Auerbach

4 · G. Buta

11 · B. Kun

15 · M. Jung

17 · R. Palfalvi

20 · B. Rideg

22 · G. Bolla

24 · Z. Csornyei

86 · P. Weisz

Gyirmot SE

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Papp

23 T. Nagy

15 N. Kiss

6 D. Pejovic

32 S. Medgyes

13 Z. Berecz

95 M. Madarasz

70 I. Tollar

78 B. Racz

22 A. Ivan

19 C. Novak

Coach · Adam Weitner

Substitutes

12 · E. Rusak

5 · B. Lanyi

8 · T. Nemeth

9 · Z. Vasvari

18 · A. Hajdu

21 · M. Szabo

73 · Y. Kichun

77 · A. Miknyoczki

90 · D. Csorba

Our number · szentlőrinc se winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market26%
Us42%
Market26%

We make Szentlőrinc SE a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Szentlőrinc SE v Gyirmot SE1.49 – 1.31
Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 11 v 1610 v 6
The market · Szentlőrinc SE win26% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 11:42
Our probability · Szentlőrinc SE win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Szentlőrinc SE win42%26%+16
Draw25%27%−2
Gyirmot SE win34%48%−14
Over 2.5 goals53%50%+3
Both teams to score56%53%+3
Over 1.5 goals76%74%+2
Over 3.5 goals31%29%+2
Szentlőrinc SE or draw66%52%+14
Szentlőrinc SE clean sheet27%––
Gyirmot SE clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.0 8.3 5.2 2.3 1 9.4 11.5 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.6 5.6 2.5 3 3.4 4.3 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Szentlőrinc SE down, Gyirmot SE across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsGYI 1–1 SZE · SZE 2–0 GYI · SZE 0–0 GYI · GYI 4–0 SZE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

SZENTLŐRINC SE

LLLWLD2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

GYIRMOT SE

WLLWLW1–0 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tiszakecske FC10+922
2Soroksar9+1320
3Kecskeméti TE10+620
4Mezokovesd-zsory10+517
5Kazincbarcikai9+516
6Gyirmot SE9016
7Ajka10+115
8Fehérvár FC9+312
9Karcag SE9−111
10Szentlőrinc SE9−411
11Diosgyori VTK9−511
12BVSC9−110
13Nagykanizsai ULE10−79
14Szeged 20118−27
15Kozarmisleny FC10−97
16Csakvar10−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.